Rising goonism culture is a stark warning from French revolution

As Kenya hurtles toward the 2027 elections, the spectre of politically backed goons looms larger than ever. Just days ago, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka warned lawyers in Machakos that unchecked “goonism,” fueled by police complicity and stalled reforms, could plunge the nation into a revolutionary mode where norms crumble.

This isn’t hyperbole. Echoing the chaotic armed groups of the French Revolution, Kenya’s hired thugs, often shielded by authorities, are not mere footnotes in protests; they are harbingers of deeper instability.

Kenyans, particularly the bold Gen Z leading the charge against corruption and economic woes, must heed this historical parallel before it spirals into irreversible violence.

Recall the French Revolution of 1789: What began as enlightened calls for liberty, equality, and fraternity devolved into a bloodbath. Armed mobs, sans-culottes, and politicised militias weren’t anomalies, they were the revolution’s muscle.

The sans-culottes, radical working-class enforcers from Paris’s underbelly, intimidated nobles, clergy, and moderates with brute force, often egged on by Jacobin leaders. The National Guard, initially a citizen defence force, morphed into a paid tool for quelling dissent, enforcing draconian laws during reign of terror.

Counter-revolutionary royalists countered with their own mercenaries, like the Chouans (smugglers and dealers in contraband), while unorganised street mobs fueled events like the September Massacres, driven by poverty, rumours, and opportunistic payments. This wasn’t organic chaos; it was orchestrated. Political factions weaponised desperation, turning economic hardship into violent loyalty. The result? Over 17,000 executions, civil war, and eventual dictatorship under Napoleon Bonaparte. Revolutionaries who started with ideals ended up guillotining each other as paranoia gripped the nation.

Fast-forward to Kenya. Gen Z’s protests, ignited in 2024 by the Finance Bill, followed a year later with commemoration protests and now simmering over police brutality and abductions, face a chillingly similar playbook. Hired goons, armed with pangas, whips, and motorbikes, descend on peaceful demonstrators, looting businesses to discredit the movement as anarchic.

Reports from June’s anniversary clashes detail how these thugs operate with impunity, advancing alongside police who turn a blind eye or even block roads to facilitate attacks according to media reports. Insiders allege politicians recruit from slums, paying meager sums to exploit jobless youth.

These goons mirror the sans-culottes: radical in action but mercenary at heart, protecting elite interests under the guise of order. Like the National Guard, Kenya’s police have become politicised, with vigilante groups maiming protesters as demands for resignations go unheeded. Economic drivers are identical—unemployment hovers above 20 per cent for under-35s, fueling recruitment pools just as bread shortages did in 1789 France. And counter-forces? Pro-government mobs echo royalist mercenaries, sowing division online and countering protesters to maintain the status quo.

Yet differences matter. France’s revolution was total upheaval; Kenya’s is reformist, leaderless, and tech-savvy, amplified by social media humour and memes that mock goon tactics without resorting to arms.

International scrutiny from human rights groups curb outright terror, unlike the isolated 18th-century chaos. Partial wins, like scrapping tax hikes, show democracy’s resilience. But with over 60 deaths from 2024 crackdown still uninvestigated, the line blurs.

The real danger is escalation or gung-ho invincibility. If goons evolve from ad-hoc hires to entrenched gangs, as seen in other nations, they could erode the state’s monopoly on violence.

Politicians who unleash them today might face blowback tomorrow, just as Jacobins turned on their own. Gen Z’s peaceful ethos risks fracturing under sustained brutality, birthing a cycle of retaliation.

Kalonzo’s warning rings true: Without reforms, independent probes, police accountability, economic relief, 2027 could defy norms, not through guillotines, but through fractured institutions and vigilante rule. Kenyans must reject this path. History teaches that revolutions fueled by armed proxies rarely end well—they devour their creators. Kenya deserves a true constitutional evolution, not a bloody echo of 1789.