How ODM can boost its value in UDA coalition talks

I have been closely following the debate on the future of the ODM party and its role in the current political landscape. There are arguments that ODM is dead following the death of its founder Raila Odinga. I beg to disagree.

Renowned for his resilience, political acumen, and determination, Raila guided ODM to become one of Kenya’s leading parties, influencing the nation’s leadership trajectory.

In the 2007 elections, ODM achieved a historic outcome by challenging the incumbent government in an intensely disputed election, which led to significant post-election unrest.

The movement secured a majority in seven out of eight provinces and obtained the highest number of parliamentary seats at that time, further establishing its political dominance.

Notably, ODM won three of five by-elections in early 2008, making subsequent electoral results difficult to interpret.

Fast-forward to the 2022 elections, ODM formed Kenya’s largest coalition alongside the Wiper Democratic Movement and, with outgoing presidential support, was widely anticipated to secure the presidency. Nonetheless, the coalition narrowly lost by approximately 200,000 votes to William Ruto.

Raila's death last year created a leadership vacuum and exposed ODM to both internal and external challenges. Facing transitional uncertainties, the appointment of Oburu Odinga as interim leader represented a strategic decision, providing stability during a critical period. Concurrently, Party Chair Gladys Wanga’s efforts have invigorated ODM, helping maintain its active status.

Presently, ODM plays a central role in pre-election negotiations with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), following initiatives such as the broad-based government and the Kilifi Declaration. Nevertheless, the party faces notable internal tensions. Some members favour established leadership structures led by Dr Oburu, while others, are seeking greater influence within the party.

Despite internal challenges, ODM remains the most dynamic national party, retaining considerable capacity to negotiate for key government positions, including the deputy presidency. However, these opportunities are also being sought by other regional parties and stakeholders.

Under the current circumstances, there is potential for the government to maintain ODM's voting support while diminishing the party’s bargaining power. Political dynamics in Central Kenya, shaped by Rigathi Gachagua’s influence, suggest limited prospects for straightforward negotiations between the President and that region.

This means the President has to look for new opportunities from the western belt (Nyanza, Western, Kisii) and minority groups such as the Somali community. This arrangement elevates ODM’s strategic value in pre-election coalition talks with the President.

However, to achieve the best outcome, ODM must now navigate a complex and evolving political landscape, balancing diverse interests and managing power relations in the absence of Raila, its visionary founder.

Some of the possible strategic directions for the ODM are: one, assessing the current status and opportunities. ODM should conduct a comprehensive review of its support bases, numerical strengths, and prevailing challenges through an internal team and targeted forum discussions.

Two, expanding membership nationwide. Building on county consultative forums initiated by the party leadership, ODM should transition these engagements into robust membership drives to consolidate its base.

Three, developing inclusive frameworks. ODM must revise governance structures to accommodate both established and emergent leaders, ensuring inclusive participation across all stakeholder groups, including the Gen Z movement.

Four, target voter registration in strongholds. Effective negotiation depends on a strong electoral mandate. ODM should intensify voter mobilisation efforts in traditional strongholds such as Nyanza, Western, Kisii, and the Coast region to counter competition from emerging local parties.

Finally, the party must view negotiations beyond elective offices. Negotiations with UDA will not only be about elective positions. They will include several positions such as CSs, PSs and ambassadors.