This is what it will take for Kenya to gain first-world status by 2055

It is the new rallying call from the State House to the streets: Kenya will be a developed country by 2055, 30 years from now.

What would it take to get there? How realistic is the 2055 target? Is Singapore the best model? And how do we overcome Kenyans’ scepticism on the way to that status?

Remember, we are not yet through with Vision 2030, which is meant to make Kenya “a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030.” 

It further aims to transform Kenya into “a newly-industrialising, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment.”

The mention of “middle” demonstrates the reality and modesty of the Vision 2030. Keen observers will note that Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda and President William Ruto’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) are derived from Vision 2030, the late former President Mwai Kibaki’s economic blueprint.

Economically, it seems we all silently live under Kibaki’s long shadow. And those who worked under him, including the Vision Champion, the late Dr Wahome Gakuru. May he RIP. Do we need Vision 2055? I would prefer 2063 to coincide with the country’s 100 anniversary of independence.

But 2060 is smoother to the tongue. That begs the question: Is 100 years good enough? Some countries, like the US, took a long time, about 100 years, to get industrialised and developed, while others took a short time, such as Singapore’s 40 years.

Clearly, getting developed is context-specific, just like marriages. South American countries have been independent for over 200 years and have not yet gained developed country status. 

Whether it takes a short time or a long time depends on a number of key factors.

One is politics. This is confusing. Democracies have more countries on the list of developed countries, but even communist China is catching up.

Singapore, the model we all prefer, had a leader at the helm for 31 years, albeit democratically elected.

And it’s a city-state without large swathes of deserts, arid land, valleys, and mountains. Which political model should we use to develop?

We tried one party and now coalitions. The longevity of one leader at the helm in Singapore and China makes the two models very attractive to African leaders.

Why are Germany or Switzerland rarely cited? Some African leaders have outdone Lee Kuan Yew, and their countries are not Singapore.

Two, and the most talked about, is infrastructure.  This is the nervous system of growth. Roads, highways, ports, airports, and lately, fibre networks.

This is a catalyst, as new roads have shown. How do we build this infrastructure? We can use taxes, borrow or go through Public-Private Partnerships.

The funders must be enticed by the prospects of growth, hence the importance of political stability and predictable policies.

We can use the Chinese model and open the country to investment as Deng Xiaoping did in 1978. But we are not a big market like China.

Why not leverage the East African Community by integrating it through a good transport network, Kiswahili, and political stability, again, to attract investors?

Often forgotten is the mental infrastructure, the beliefs and our cultures. How can we be first world when we still believe all the rich are Illuminati or devil worshipers?

And witchcraft is still alive. Many will confess that mental infrastructure matters more than physical. There are many Kenyans who have not benefited from good roads or proximity to the sea and other countries. No wonder immigrants do so well; they change their mental infrastructure. Shall Kenya be more welcoming to immigrants as we grow?

Did I hear some schools are closing because of a shortage of pupils? Will immigrants and their new thinking fill the void, the way they have transformed Nairobi or the US? By the way, Uganda is catching up with us by giving New York a mayor. 

Trade will be the other catalyst. Singapore’s trade as a percentage of GDP was 311. Kenya was 30 per cent in 2024.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a low-hanging fruit. We must decide early enough what to trade in.

One popular avenue is the value addition of our primary products. Why does Germany trade more in coffee than we do? When did tea become English? 

We can’t forget good Education: skills will take us to a developed country status. We must focus on skills that can either give us jobs, self-employment and are marketable beyond the borders. Think of Indians in IT or Chinese in artificial intelligence (AI). 

Research will ensure we are ahead of the curve. What will come after AI?  Can we spawn it? Why should 75 per cent of our graduates be in social sciences? We are yet to set aside three per cent of our GDP for research.

How shall we win the economic race without new ideas - innovations? It’s different from the marathon we easily win. 

What of the national philosophy? We are a “hollow nation” without concrete values. Anything goes as long as you make money, the genesis of corruption.  

Joblessness and pessimism are driving us deeper into short-termism. What are the Kenyan core beliefs and values? Remember Nyayo philosophy? Ujamaa? Ubuntu? Gandhism?  It may appear contrarian, but great nations are built on a belief or philosophy. Does it surprise you that the King of England also heads the Church of England? Such philosophies are the “soul of the nation.” What makes Japanese Japanese? Germans? Russians?  

This brings us to religion. What role will it play in making Kenya a developed country? Economists suggest that once the religious grip on our lives was loosened, socioeconomic progress took over.

Remember the Reformation and Renaissance?  Think of how the Protestant work ethic has remained core to American lives.

Driven by a higher power, religion can be a positive impetus for growth. Think of the sense of duty instilled in Kenyans who went through mission schools.

But it can be a hindrance; remember cults and pseudo-religions? Religions can also be used to subjugate and hypnotise the masses. Sounds familiar? 

How about overcoming our deeply ingrained scepticism and some cynicism? Little surprise the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), the 8-4-4 and  Competency-Based Education (CBE) education systems, and the Nairobi Expressway were “bulldozed.”

Add our mistrust of the government. Have you heard? The narrative on the developed country status by 2055 is a diversion from realities like joblessness, high cost of living and national pessimism, a fallout from unfulfilled political promises? 

Will our religious and philosophical values stand up against corruption and other drains on national energy as we race towards 2055?

Shall we see each other as an asset, not a liability? That’s how we see other tribes. Corruption is driven by “them” versus “us.”

Would a policeman/woman take a Sh50 bribe from their brother or sister-in-law? Don’t we stone a stray dog, which is someone’s pet? 

We can’t be developed without strong families. They are the core of the nation. A strong family gives you wings to fly.

When we talk of Singapore or China, we mute the role of families. But dig deeper. Single parenthood is low in both China and Singapore, our role models. No pun intended.

To be developed, let’s first make use of what we have. I am amazed by a house in the Happy Valley built around 1908: its walls are mud and its roof shingles.

It’s still standing and occupied. The colonialists made use of available materials. Why can’t we make use of what we have before reaching out for help - our human resources, food, brains, and natural resources?

Philosophy again: why do we think that we are inferior? Why do we look down on mud houses where we were born and brought up? And our names? Can we believe in ourselves? 

What of the relationship with neighbours? The rise of the British Empire, the US, Japan, Korea, and Singapore had a lot to do with interaction with neighbours.  Think of Vietnam or Japan trading with the US, once mortal enemies. Did I hear that we are getting a raw deal from EAC? 

What role will the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and other multilateral organisations play in our quest to become a developed country? What of new players like China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey and France?

We could learn from social market economics, which drove Germany’s post-World War II recovery. We must ensure no one is left behind.

Developed country status is not just about wealth, but inclusivity, welfare, and social security. Why do Africans risk their lives to reach Europe? And how shall we handle external shocks like Covid-19, recessions or even wars?

Our capitalism must get a human face. Today, life has become a lottery, whether it’s passing exams or getting jobs. The resulting inequality creates instability, a bump on the road to a developed country status. Remember the hustler narrative? 

Which institutions, not personalities, will take us to a developed country status?  Becoming a developed country should be a national project. What role will families, schools, courts, parliament, banks, Saccos, and chamas play? Such a national project is like an orchestra; each person must play their instrument and their role.

We often forget the small things, the operational side of any strategy. We have policies, laws and regulations.

Their test comes in the operationalisation. That is the big disconnect in Kenya. Think of the operationalisation of the 2010 constitution, CBE, Vision 2030 and other great ideas.

Who will do the “dirty work” as we aspire to attain the developed country status? Think of the most iconic building in Nairobi, like the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) or Old Mutual in Upper Hill.

Who were the masons, the carpenters and other “small people?” They can sabotage the best architectural design. The small people are the hustlers, the hoi polloi, the voters. 

If you want a model of how Kenya will become a developed country by 2055, 2060 or 2063, whichever date we choose, don’t visit Singapore, visit Baringo and see the anthills.

How do the small ants make such monuments? It needs patience and focus. Each ant does what it knows best. Think of meritocracy in Singapore as we sweat over ghost workers.  

Finally, we are not Singapore! Every country must come up with its own economic blueprint, a better socio-economic blueprint. 

Sages from Murang’a say, “ndiakagwo ta ya wakini” (you don’t build a house like your neighbour’s). A house is not just the building but the family and all that appertains to it.  Did I hear there is such a blueprint? Is it an extension of Vision 2030 or something new?  

The Vision 2055 objective should be “to transform Kenya into a developed country by 2055.”  Compared with Singapore, we are in the 1960s with emphasis on nation building, specifically focusing on housing, public order, education and attracting FDI.

This was followed by industrialisation, shift to services and finance and finally Innovation. Which other country should we benchmark with? Remember our benchmarking in the 2010 Constitution?

There is a possibility, however remote, that I could be at the party to celebrate the declaration of Kenya as a developed country.

What else do you think we must do to become a developed country in our lifetime? Keep a copy of this article, and we will compare notes around 2055 AD.