Kituyi: Opposition should speak as one

Alternative Government spokesperson Mukhisa Kituyi has brought back into sharp focus one of the opposition’s most difficult questions ahead of the 2027 General Election.

How and when will a collection of opposition leaders with different political bases, ambitions and ideas agree on one presidential candidate?

For months, opposition leaders have spoken confidently about the need to unite behind a single candidate to challenge President William Ruto. But Mukhisa Kituyi’s interview on KTN’s Spice FM morning programme has exposed the difficult politics beneath the seemingly simple objective.

The problem, he suggests, is not that the opposition does not understand the importance of unity. The problem is that its leaders have not agreed on what that unity should be built on, or how the person expected to lead it should emerge.

“There is agreement, unanimous agreement on the importance of unity, but I don't think there's agreement on the building blocks for that unity,” Kituyi said.

The opposition has not yet settled on a formula for selecting its presidential candidate, yet its principals are already strengthening their individual political bases, defining their own conditions and, in some cases, openly presenting themselves as potential presidential contenders.

Kituyi says there are fundamentally different ideas about how the opposition should be assembled.

“There are people who believe that the building blocks of a United Opposition are paramount chiefs of tribes and regions. Go and mobilise your people, I mobilise my people, and then we come together and say, ‘Who is now the paramount chief of all the chiefs?” he said.

It is a model that places regional mobilisation at the centre of political bargaining. The stronger a leader’s home base, the stronger the argument they can make when the opposition eventually sits down to determine who gets the ticket.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is the most vocal proponent of that agenda and he is not apologetic about it.

“Mobilisation for bargaining edge must start with each principal’s base,” Gachagua said, arguing that political strength at home provides leverage in national negotiations.

“It is only through a strong home base that one can negotiate presidential ambitions effectively. Mt Kenya is a unique voting bloc with interests only understood by its sons and daughters,” he added.

Gachagua at some point stressed the importance of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i first establishing himself in Mt Kenya before seeking broader support.

“I want us to reach an agreement: I will take Matiang’i on a tour of the Mt Kenya region so he can meet his ‘cousins.’ We want the people of the Mountain to respect him, but he must be accorded respect here at home,” he said at a rally in Kisii county.

This approach raises a difficult question: If every principal must first consolidate a political base before negotiations begin, does the eventual presidential contest simply become a contest between the strongest regional blocs?

Kituyi also says others want the coalition to begin somewhere else, with policy.

“There are those saying, ‘Let us have clear positions of governance and on economic policy and social policy,’ and then say, ‘Do you agree with me on this or not?’” he said.

Under such an approach, the opposition would first agree on what kind of government it wants to offer Kenyans before deciding who should head that government, and Kituyi believes that distinction is critical.

“One thing is agreeing that we're choosing one candidate, but there's also agreeing on what that candidate is going to do best,” he said.

“We want a leader that has an agenda that is collective to all the opposition,” he added, describing the eventual candidate as primus inter pares, the first among equals.

The implication is that the opposition cannot simply choose a candidate and then leave that individual to determine the coalition’s direction.

But that raises another question: What happens when the leaders cannot agree on the policies themselves? And even before reaching that stage, the opposition has to agree on how the candidate will be selected.

This is where the statements of other principals become important.

Matiang’i has previously insisted that the process must be rational, structured and capable of being explained to the public.

“Yes, I will still use the scientific method,” he said.

He clarified that he was not necessarily talking about a mathematical formula, but a process that could withstand public scrutiny.

“It means a method you can explain rationally to people; I’m saying there must be a rational method explaining how we arrive here. Even if it’s a negotiation, it has to be explainable,” Matiang’i said.

Eugene Wamalwa, meanwhile, has emphasised the character and record of the eventual candidate.

“We will only choose a candidate that Kenyans want, one who has no corruption-related cases, no blood on his hands, and no questionable character, and who must also have a proven track record,” he said.

These positions could eventually become part of the formula, but they also demonstrate why choosing one candidate may be far more complicated than opposition leaders have made it appear.

What does “Kenyans want” mean in measurable terms?

Should national opinion polls determine the candidate? Should regional strength be considered? Should the parties use delegates? Should the principals negotiate? Should the candidates be subjected to a primary? Or should all these factors be combined?

The answer could determine whether the opposition emerges from the process stronger or fractured.

The irony is that while the opposition is discussing the structure for choosing one presidential candidate, some of the individuals expected to participate in that process are themselves unwilling to be treated as mere kingmakers.

Gachagua has been particularly explicit about his own ambitions. “Is Riggy G running for president? The answer is yes,” he said.

He dismissed the suggestion that his political role was simply to help another opposition leader ascend to power. “Riggy G is not a kingmaker. Riggy G is King,” he said.

That statement is significant because the opposition’s eventual formula will have to accommodate several leaders who genuinely believe they should be the candidate.

Political pundits have argued that it is easier to negotiate unity when everyone expects to benefit. It becomes much harder when the final arrangement requires one principal to abandon a presidential ambition and campaign for another.

The opposition has another unresolved issue: who actually has the authority to coordinate all these negotiations?

Kituyi, who was named United Opposition spokesperson months ago, has now distanced himself from the position.

“The position exists only on paper. I'm not saying that I'm having any role as a spokesperson of the opposition,” he said.

The problem, according to Kituyi, is that there is no functioning common secretariat through which he can legitimately speak for all the parties and leaders.

“You call me the head of a secretariat that does not exist,” he said.

He also pointed to the absence of consistent joint positions among the opposition parties.

“I’m engaging, but there are not too many opportunities where we have discussed an issue across the board and said, ‘This is our joint position,’” Kituyi said.

That is a significant admission at a time when the opposition is trying to sell itself as a credible alternative government.

If the parties are still struggling to establish common positions on issues, the much bigger question is whether they can establish a common ground on the most consequential issue of all: who should lead them.

Kituyi’s own conclusion was telling: “Let the opposition become one. Then a spokesman will find an easy job to do.”

Senator Ewin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi has added another layer to the negotiations. Kituyi argues that the movement cannot be excluded from the wider opposition conversation simply because it was not part of the initial discussions.

“They are a reality is that you cannot wish away,” he said.

He made the distinction that Linda Mwananchi does not necessarily have to immediately join the existing United Opposition structure.

“Linda Mwananchi don't have to be part of that immediate opposition, but Linda Mwananchi are part of the opposition,” he said.

Some time back, Sifuna had already acknowledged that bringing the different forces together would not be straightforward.

“We will sit down and talk, even when the issues are difficult, because we do not expect Linda Mwananchi to be a choir like the broad-based arrangement. That is impossible,” he said.

“Everyone will be allowed to express their opinion. Still, in the end, we will sit together as leaders of Linda Mwananchi, deliberate, and agree on a way forward that satisfies Kenyans and our supporters,” he added.

That may be the clearest description of what awaits the opposition. They will have to sit together and talk, not only when the conversation is easy, but when interests of individual leaders collide.

Kituyi's interview has therefore resurfaced a discussion that the opposition cannot avoid for much longer. The question is not simply whether the opposition can unite; it is whether it can agree on the rules of unity before asking its leaders to accept its outcome.

A candidate-selection formula that is agreed upon beforehand could give the eventual loser a reason to accept defeat. A formula negotiated after the preferred candidate becomes obvious could easily be viewed as a political arrangement designed to favour one individual.

That is why the opposition’s biggest challenge may not be producing one candidate. It may be producing a process that all the candidates are willing to trust. For now, the opposition has unity as a political slogan.

What it does not yet have is a universally accepted formula for turning that slogan into a presidential ticket and, as Kituyi put it, the challenges are not insurmountable.