Survey gives Sifuna an edge over Ruto, signals battle for Raila bloc

Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna would easily beat President William Ruto if elections were held today.

Latest poll by TIFA has placed at par, Sifuna, a new entrant into the presidential race and President Ruto, an incumbent who has ruled the country for four years.

With the General Election nine months away, the TIFA poll released on Thursday puts Ruto and Sifuna at 31 per cent, marking a significant rise in support for Sifuna.

Notably, poll findings also show that the popularity of Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party has frozen, only high in his Rift Valley backyard, while Sifuna outfit’s popularity is rising, including in the South Rift.

While Ruto has done developmental tours across almost every constituency in the country, Sifuna who has done a countable number of rallies, has been placed as Ruto's fiercest challenger.

 “This survey finds President Ruto tied with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in terms of popularity regarding Kenyans’ preferred winner of next year’s presidential election,” TIFA said.

The poll placed Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka at number three with nine per cent, followed by Jubilee party leader Fred Matiang’i at five per cent while DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua took a distant fifth position at four per cent and Ndindi Nyoro was rated at one per cent.

Combined, support for other potential opposition presidential candidates, excluding Sifuna, stands at 19 per cent. If consolidated, with the push to forge a united team, the support could give Sifuna a clear path to the 50 per cent mark and easily send Ruto home.

“Whereas support for other Opposition/possible presidential candidates combined is substantial (19 per cent) and enough to put Sifuna right up to the required vote-numbers to ‘win’ (50 per cent), in reality no such assumption can be made, given the competition within the Opposition, and the inherent advantages of an incumbent,” TIFA argued.

With the push for a united opposition, TIFA observed that the latest poll reveals how Sifuna’s rise has come at the expense of his opposition colleagues - who have all recorded reductions in their popularity-rather than of President Ruto.

Kalonzo declined from 12 per cent in June to 9 per cent, Matiang'i from 14 per cent to 5 per cent and Rigathi from 7 per cent to 4 per cent.

The findings points to recent calls by leaders and Kenyans aligned to the opposition for the unity of the opposition leaders and a decision on a single presidential candidate for a successful face-off with Ruto in the 2027 polls.

Regionally, Ruto’s biggest support for a re-election was recorded from Central Rift, Coast, North Eastern and Nyanza while Sifuna’s supporters are concentrated in Mt Kenya Region, Nairobi, South Rift and Western region. Kalonzo’s biggest support base was traced in lower Eastern.

Whereas Ruto’s UDA party was rated as the most popular political party at 25 per cent, Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi party, coming from ‘nowhere,’ is the second most popular political party in the country at 17 percent, with TIFA noting that the party ate into ODM supporters strongholds. 

ODM popularity has also dropped from 20 per cent as recorded in May to 10 per cent captured in the latest poll. DCP popularity stands at 9 per cent.

The Poll also found that the majority of DCP supporters also preferred Sifuna to be the presidential candidate compared to those who chose the party leader, Gachagua as the flag bearer with rating standing at 34 and 25 per cent respectively.

Sifuna also commands considerable support among ODM supporters. Although 42 per cent of the party’s supporters favour President Ruto’s candidacy, 33 per cent back Sifuna, indicating his significant appeal within the party’s support base.

What is further worth noting is that Ruto's popularity and that of his political party, United Democratic Alliance (UDA), have a waning popularity, as Sifuna's outfit registered soaring ratings.

President Ruto enjoyed huge support from the Central Kenya region in 2022 but despite efforts by leaders from the region including Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to pitch camp in the area to consolidate the region's support, the research shows that the efforts have been futile.

In Nairobi, while the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga got more votes than Ruto, Ruto's popularity in the area has also significantly reduced.

Indicative of the fact that his attempt to inherit Raila's support base in the cosmopolitan county has not gone as planned with just nine months to go before the next General election.

The situation is not any better in the Lower Eastern region of Ukambani.

While the poll was conducted immediately after the President's developmental tour of the region from 24th to 27th October, Ruto's visit did nothing to sway the voters despite an attempt to court Wiper Patriotic Front party leader Kalonzo Musyoka who continues to enjoy the region's support at 55 per cent.

In Western Kenya, Ruto has a quarter of the region's support despite the huge presence of leaders from the region camping in the area.

The figures in the coast, south rift and Nyanza point to a neck to neck race.

Sifuna has 31 per cent preference in the South Rift (Kajiado and Narok) compared to Ruto's 29 per cent while at the Coast, Ruto is in the lead with 40 per cent compared to Sifuna's 36 percent.

In Nyanza, Ruto is ahead by 2 percentage points at 35 per cent while Sifuna trails at 33 per cent, indicating that Sifuna ‘stole’ into ODM strongholds.

The poll also casts doubt on Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja’s reelection bid on the ODM ticket after quitting UDA, owing to the party's reduced popularity in Nairobi

“Given that ODM currently has hardly one-third the popularity in the capital of Linda, basically the same level of UDA, therefore he may be “simply moving from one sinking ship to another,” with the Linda Mwananchi-aligned Babu Owino announcing that he would be contesting for this position as well,” TIFA argued.

Nyanza was Raila's political bastion but the figures show that it will not be an easy ride for Ruto in the region.

Majority of the region's leaders have been doing several empowerment events in the region, rallying support for the President but despite Sifuna's brigade doing only two visits to the region in Homa Bay and Kisumu, they pose a huge threat to Ruto.

On the question of preferred running mate for President Ruto, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki emerged as the most preferred choice with 55 per cent support.

Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga followed with 12 per cent, Mining CS Hassan Joho rated third at nine per cent, while ODM party leader Oburu Oginga, CS Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetang'ula each received four per cent.

Among all those who indicate their support for President Ruto’s reelection, there is a clear majority preference for his current deputy, Prof. Kithure Kindiki (55%),” TiFA said.

CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Kirinyaga governor Anne Waiguru emerged as the least preferred choices at 2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.