How Sifuna's rise has rattled Ruto allies

The latest TIFA opinion poll has triggered a political storm, with leaders from across the political divide questioning its credibility and disputing its findings as the country edges closer to the 2027 General Election.

The survey, which has placed President William Ruto at 31 per cent in the presidential race while putting Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna among the potential contenders, has drawn sharp reactions from government allies and opposition figures.

While some have dismissed the findings as propaganda intended to influence public opinion, others have questioned the motives behind the survey, with accusations emerging that the results could be part of wider political schemes to shape the opposition's presidential contest.

Speaking during a UDA grassroots leaders' meeting in Kyambeke, Makueni County, Kibwezi mp Mwengi Mutuse dismissed the survey as propaganda meant to mislead Kenyans, insisting that grassroots mobilisation, rather than opinion polls, would determine the country's political direction.

He maintained that President William Ruto remained ahead and had a record of development to defend as he seeks another term.

“Some are presenting research claiming that Sifuna and William Ruto are neck-and-neck in terms of popularity for the presidency. Let me tell you: Kenya cannot be led by propaganda and lies. Kenyans know that Ruto has delivered for them,” he said.

Mutuse also challenged pollsters to move beyond their research findings and assess the political situation at the grassroots.

“As for those people conducting opinion polls, why don’t you come here and see for yourselves?” he posed.

His remarks were echoed by Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya, who questioned the credibility of the surveys and accused some pollsters of manipulating public opinion.

“Kenya has many conmen and who are giving opinion polls to show that Sifuna is neck-to-neck with President Ruto,” Kawaya said.

The legislator went further to link TIFA's previous surveys to former President Uhuru Kenyatta, alleging that the research firm had been funded to influence the outcome of past political contests.

“It is the same TIFA that was paid last term by Uhuru Kenyatta to show Raila was going to win but he later failed,” he claimed. “There is not time TIFA has said that someone will win and they win. TIFA is a paid organisation,” he added.

Kawaya also suggested that the latest survey was designed to weaken Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka's position in the opposition by portraying Sifuna as a serious presidential contender.

“The poll was designed to intentionally make Sifuna to seem that he is leading so that Kalonzo seems insignificant,” he alleged.

The criticism has not been confined to government circles, with some opposition figures also questioning the survey and its implications for the emerging political contest.

Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi dismissed the suggestion that Sifuna could emerge as a serious presidential contender, questioning his political experience and national support base.

“I saw some opinion polls say Sifuna can become the president. I laughed a lot. If that kid is the one competing president William Ruto you know very William Ruto is going to come back,” he said.

Atandi drew comparisons between Sifuna and veteran opposition leaders Raila Odinga and his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, arguing that their political influence had not translated into presidential victories.

“If Raila and Jaramogi who had national and overwhelming influence across the country, never became president can a standard 3 become the president? Sifuna will only get Luhya vote,” he said.

He maintained that the political contest was increasingly becoming a competition between regions over their contribution to Ruto's support base.

“The competition we have is which region is going to give Ruto more votes than the other. As to whether he is going to be re-elected that is a done deal,” Atandi added.

Meanwhile, Wiper Patriotic Front spokesperson and lawyer Ndegwa Njiru questioned the credibility of the latest survey, particularly its findings on Ruto's popularity.

In a post on X on Friday, November 13, Njiru dismissed any poll placing the President above 15 per cent, describing such findings as fabricated.

“Any poll that places the outgoing President WilliamsRuto above 15% is a paid-up fabrication that deserves neither attention nor mention,” Njiru wrote.

He also questioned whether the research firm could accurately capture the country's political mood through its surveys.

“TIFA cannot poll inside State House and then present the result as a national survey,” he stated.

However, Boni Khalwale appeared to take a different approach, urging supporters of the Linda Mwananchi movement not to be distracted by the polling debate but to intensify their political activities.

In his reaction on X, Khalwale called on supporters to remain focused despite the competing interpretations of the survey.

“We urge our supporters to leap high beyond these polls. The campaign ain't gonna be easy. Let's keep pushing,” he said.

The reactions underline the growing political significance attached to opinion polls as politicians begin positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 contest.