Inside elusive Luhya unity divide ahead of 2027 poll

As Kenya edges closer to the 2027 General Election, Western Kenya is once again thrust into the national political spotlight. 

With over 2.6 million registered voters spread across Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, and Trans Nzoia counties, the region holds the potential to influence the outcome of the presidential race. 

Yet, despite its numerical strength, Western Kenya remains politically fragmented, raising questions over whether the Luhya community can field a credible presidential candidate capable of challenging Kenya’s dominant power blocs.

For decades, the region has played the role of kingmaker, courted aggressively during campaigns but rarely rewarded with the country’s highest offices. 

Analysts argue that the region’s political voice is often diluted by internal divisions and competing ambitions, a trend that appears to be set to continue into the 2027 elections.

The debate over Western Kenya’s presidential prospects has intensified following remarks by DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, who recently ruled out any collaboration with President William Ruto under the so-called broad-based arrangement. 

Wamalwa, a former Cabinet Secretary, has instead positioned himself as a contender from the united opposition, emphasizing the need for the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration to deliver on its manifesto rather than attempting to lure opposition figures across the political divide.

"I don't want any cabinet slot in Ruto's government because my focus is on the office he is occupying today," Wamalwa said. 

"I am ready to fly the United Opposition flag in 2027 and face President Ruto on the ballot. If our eldest brothers, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, are afraid, let them know we have David in the Luhya nation who’s ready to tussle with Goliath," he added. 

Wamalwa’s declaration has triggered a flurry of reactions from across Western Kenya. Some leaders see his stance as a bold challenge to entrenched political hierarchies, while others warn that it risks further fragmenting the Luhya community’s political influence.

Bumula MP Jack Wamboka has been among the loudest voices insisting that Western Kenya must field a presidential candidate in the 2027 elections. Wamboka argues that the Luhya community cannot afford to sit on the sidelines or postpone its presidential ambitions to 2032.

Wamboka cited a growing pool of leaders ready to take the region to the national stage, including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Wamalwa, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, and himself.

"These figures are capable of tackling national issues while simultaneously rallying the Luhya vote behind a strong presidential contender," he said.

Despite these ambitions, the region remains deeply divided.

Senior figures such as Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya are widely seen as potential standard-bearers, yet their entry into the race risks overlapping ambitions and diluting support.

Meanwhile, other politicians, including Mumias East MP Peter Salasya and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, have hinted at presidential aspirations, further fragmenting the region’s voice.

The political calculus is further complicated by Natembeya, whose confrontational style and grassroots advocacy have disrupted the traditional political order in Western Kenya.

"My brothers Musalia and Wetangula, if you are afraid of vying for the presidency, kindly give way for aspiring leaders," Wamboka said.

He added, "The narrative of saying two terms and pushing us to 2032 won't work. As a Luhya nation, we must be at the main table come 2027. Our brothers from Rift Valley and Central have already positioned themselves, and they keep taking you in circles."

To show how fragmented the region remains, even camps campaigning for President Ruto’s reelection have seen divisions. 

Sirisia MP John Waluke, an ally of President Ruto, recently challenged the president’s campaign team in the region, dismissing Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka and Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula as "impostors" and calling for the Western Parliamentary Caucus, which he chairs, to lead the campaign.

"Ignore the impostors who earlier claimed to be the region coordinators for the president’s reelection bid," Waluke said. "The Western Parliamentary Caucus has 52 sub-counties and will lead campaigns in Western."

He went on to urge Wamalwa and company to join President Ruto’s team to ensure the current regime clinches a second term. 

"Luhyas are many in numbers, but divisive politics and disunity have divided us. The journey of unity is bearing fruit, and our vote will be in one basket for President Ruto," he said.

Political analysts suggest that the current fragmentation could have lasting consequences.

Moses Ombayo notes that while Western Kenya holds significant electoral weight, disunity and overlapping ambitions risk diluting its influence at the national level.

"Western Kenya’s fragmentation is both a strength and a weakness. While the region holds significant numbers, disunity and overlapping ambitions risk weakening its bargaining power," Ombayo observed. 

He notes that the region’s internal divisions, competing ambitions, and high-stakes political manoeuvring are set to shape not only the Luhya community’s future but potentially the outcome of the national presidential contest.

"Whether the Luhya can consolidate behind a single candidate or continue to fragment their political voice may determine whether Western Kenya remains a kingmaker or finally produces its own king," said Ombayo.