Ruto will be disappointed if he is banking on Raila for support

A Kikuyu musician, the late Makibi James, advised the Kikuyu community in his song titled ‘Riua ni Twotete’ (loosely translated ‘the sun has burnt us’) to listen to his advice in the song or else, “they should wait for the hyenas that would eat them”. Should we say the same to President William Ruto? Here is the shocker!

There is a high possibility of Raila Odinga ditching Ruto in 2027 for two reasons. First, as long as Raila is breathing, he will always be on the ballot. Second, Raila believes he has the highest chance of winning the presidential election in 2027 than ever—even in his perceived old age.

These reasons should persuade Ruto’s political investors to deposit only transactional hopes with Baba. Political pundits agree that Ruto will likely repeat the same mistakes that his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta made in 2022—believing in Raila’s glittering political career.

Uhuru, against Raila’s political pattern, believed Baba could deliver the 2022 presidency. He could not. As we said again and again in this column, Raila’s only capital at that time was the ability to king someone else.

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So, has Baba ever seriously wanted to become president? What we know is that political gods always heighten his hopes. For example, Ruto will seemingly have the lowest chance of re-election in 2027. Why is that so?

When Ruto became president in 2022, he broke the glass ceiling. He did what no other presidential candidate had ever done. For that, he is considered the most intelligent, tactical, and political genius.

But, suppose Sir Isaac Newton (the father of physics), Adam Smith (the Father of Economics), Aristotle (the father of political science), and other great men and women of the past centuries awoke today. They will be surprised at how lowly they would rank among the current generation regarding discoveries, creativity, and innovation, even in the areas where history rewarded them as geniuses. But there is no genius when it comes to generational transitions.

The trick has always been to go outside the present and peer into the future to remain relevant. Such projections help great men and women to craft strategies that sync sustainably. Therefore, adapting to changes in both generational expectations and superstructures is essential for survival.

How does this apply to Ruto? Seemingly, he is ignoring critical issues he must address quickly and effectively in the next two years. He is dealing with a generation that knows no politics of dynasties, as he himself called them. He is consolidating experienced political heavyweights in prominence and depth of pockets to build his political base for 2027. Such a strategy won’t work in 2027.

Secondly, Ruto subtly but consistently appeals to kingpins in politics. His tactic is to have all the big fish in his pocket. As I said before here, the generation that has the vote won’t fall for ageism, tribalism, political wealth displays, and regionalism.

The biggest shocker of 2027 will be to see students, hustlers, and social media celebrities elected as Senators, Women Reps, MPs, and governors. We could even have a socialite sent to the State House—do not underestimate the generation that is moving around in our streets nowadays without jobs.

What, then, should Ruto do if he wants to be re-elected in 2027? He must first not put any grain of trust in Raila. Baba will jump the ship—assuredly. Second, he must quickly fix the rifts widening within UDA.

He must concentrate on building the people’s capacity and stop building the nation. Only the people can build their nation. The timing now does not allow him to build the economy and the nation—it is futile, and he will pay dearly for it come 2027. Are we his adviser? No! Has he asked for our advice? Not at all! He is just our president.

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication