Ruto, Raila new deal is a replay of old record

Can president William Ruto use ODM leader Raila Odinga’s influence to secure countrywide support that is quickly eluding him and his Kenya Kwanza administration?

Political analysts think it will be a tall order. But the President also knows there is nothing to lose because joining hands with Raila is the best available opportunity given the political challenges he is facing.

Political analyst Barrack Muluka sees Ruto doing everything possible to get re-elected in 2027.

“Raila has come in to save the ship but he must also be having his own selfish agenda. That is what Kenyans and his supporters will expect in the near future,” says Muluka.

President Ruto has been in a similar position before together with former colleagues when they were in President Daniel arap Moi’s Kanu party. They joined Raila to regain support before the 2007 General Election after Moi left office in 2002.

In the 2002 election, despite getting re-elected in his then Eldoret North constituency, Ruto and other Cabinet ministers in President Moi’s government were banished to the opposition benches by President Mwai Kibaki’s Narc wave orchestrated by Raila.

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But towards the 2007 election, they, joined Raila, who with his LDP colleagues differed with Kibaki over an MoU that was not honoured and a referendum on a new constitution.

The Kanu team led by Uhuru Kenyatta had joined the LDP side in successfully opposing the 2005 referendum of a constitution. It was at the time that Ruto replaced Moi as the Rift Valley region’s political kingpin. 

It was an opportunity that Ruto never let go when he jumped from Kanu to join Raila in registering the ODM party before the 2007 presidential election which Raila controversially lost to Kibaki.

Prime Minister

The Raila-Ruto relationship blossomed when the former became Prime Minister while Ruto returned to the Cabinet as minister for Agriculture in the grand coalition government. He has remained in government since -- except for a short hiatus when he left the Cabinet after he was indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Despite being out of government since then, Raila has entered into the so-called handshakes with all presidents since 2002. Ruto has indicated that Raila may be on his way back to the office of Prime Minister, perhaps in readiness of a power sharing deal in 2027.

“Thank you very much the Hon Prime Minister. Your excellency Raila Amolo Odinga, the Prime Minister of Kenya and party leader of my former party ODM,” were Ruto’s salutations during the signing the ODM-UDA Memorandum of Understanding on Friday.

Irrelevant deputy

Historian Prof Macharia Munene notes that although Raila is now with Ruto, the political field is very open and the ODM leader may in fact be on the presidential ballot again in 2027.

He says Raila is a good student of former Uganda president Milton Obote who struggled to become a powerful executive prime minister although he was not elected before edging out the Kabaka monarchy to take over as president.

“He has done the same thing since 1997 by bargaining for power. He has made all deputy presidents from Kalonzo Musyoka in the Kibaki government to Ruto in Uhuru’s irrelevant after the handshakes and it is going to be the same story with Prof Kindiki,” says Munene.

It is a pattern Raila has perfected, sometimes cutting pre-election deals like the current one and the one he entered into with Moi in 2001 or post-election, as he did with Kibaki in 2008 and with Uhuru in 2018.

But being a master schemer who learned from Raila and Moi, Ruto also knows how to play his cards well.

As a novice, he shocked President Moi by defeating close ally Reuben Chesire in the 1997 elections to capture the Eldoret North seat.

He also campaigned hard for Uhuru Kenyatta in 2002. During the campaigns, Ruto went round the country demanding that the old guard like then Vice President George Saitoti, Simeon Nyachae and others retire together with Moi.

Ruto saw Raila’s value during his short stay in the opposition after Uhuru lost the 2002 polls. The opportunity came when Raila became restive about the pre-election MoU he had signed with Kibaki.

While in the opposition, Ruto became a vocal government critic both inside and outside Parliament.

That was the time Raila was also becoming unhappy about Kibaki’s appointments in government, saying he was disregarding the MoU that the two sides had signed before the 2002 election.

The grumbling continued as Kibaki entrenched himself in office surrounded by former Democratic Party allies like Kiraitu Murungi, Chris Murungaru and Martha Kurua, until Raila and his allies left government after the 2005 referendum.

Ruto stayed close to Raila after Kibaki sacked LDP ministers who had campaigned against the constitution referendum. He became part of the ODM party key organ called the Pentagon in 2006 with Musalia Mudavadi, Joseph Nyagah and Najib Balala.

To test the waters, Ruto first declared his candidature for president in 2007 on the ODM ticket where he squared it out with Raila and Mudavadi in the primaries before stepping down to campaign for Raila especially in his Rift Valley backyard.

He became the victim of Raila’s presidential campaign and was indicted by the International Criminal Court for allegedly committing crimes against humanity in the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

“Ruto has now found himself naked politically and he strongly believes Raila can provide him with good cover. He needs support to deal with an opposition wave spurred by his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua,” says Prof Munene.

The President knows that even within the ODM ranks, there is a group that is not happy with the new political arrangement because of the perception being created that they are betraying youth activists who have either been abducted or killed for demanding change.

Ruto is, however, doing everything possible to get re-elected in 2027 and is getting increasingly agitated when Gachagua repeatedly says he will be a one-term president.

Gachagua is also positioning himself to be kingmaker.

“Riggy G has found relevance in the Mt Kenya region, not so much because people love him but because they need a political vehicle,” says Muluka.

Wrecking Kanu

Raila appears to be banking on a pro-people approach as he eats his cake in Ruto’s government. The 10-point agenda of the broad based government MoU he signed with Ruto commits to protecting the right to peaceful assembly, the rule of law and constitutionalism.

In an attempt to appease the Gen Z, it also seeks compensation for the over 60 youth shot dead by police officers and the hundreds who were injured and abducted.

But as Prof Munene puts it, Raila is a very unpredictable politician. He stormed out of Kanu, with a majority of party officials and senior politicians in 2002, leaving Ruto, Mudavadi and Cyrus Jirongo to campaign for Uhuru who was President Moi’s preferred successor.

In 2002, Raila thought Moi would back him as his successor but the outgoing President picked Uhuru.

He left Kanu to make the famous ‘Kibaki Tosha’ pronouncement at the Uhuru Park, sealing Kibaki’s endorsement as the opposition candidate.

“Raila also knows when to seize an opportunity. Ruto will also have to be aware of his past record of getting into the room and causing instability for his own gain,” says Munene.