Opposition's demise? New allies, old mindset

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is a seasoned political operative who cut his teeth in the Kanu regime. His oratory and mobilisation skills merit a Nobel Prize.

The man from Tseikuru, who critics call water melon, has pulled a major surprise by making Dr Fred Okeng’o Matiang’i the ‘new catch’ for the Opposition.

The former Cabinet Secretary now joins Mr Musyoka, Mr Rigathi Gachagua, Ms Martha Karua, and Mr Eugene Wamalwa in facing off with Kenya Kwanza in 2027. Mr Mithika Linturi and Mr Justin Muturi have also joined the fray after being fired from the  Cabinet.

Last week, they held their first major meeting in Nairobi, followed by another appearance in Wamunyoro, where they vowed to remain united until the General Election. That was a welcome avowal given the opposition’s tendency to split before every election.

We saw what happened to ODM is 2007 when Mr Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya broke away, and the death of Ford in 1992 following politician Martin Shikuku had an ‘Ugali’ date with President Daniel Moi. Ford-Kenya, Ford-Asili and Ford-people emerged.

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But as the Kalonzo-led Opposition widely shared photos from the Nairobi and Wamunyoro meetings, President William Ruto and his allies were touring Migori County, mocking them as ‘tribal kingpins’ with no clear agenda.  

Clearly, the heat has risen, and the Opposition is in disarray. ODM chief Raila Odinga’s exit has badly deflated them. They don't even don’t know where to start in finding a flagbearer and a winning formula. In my view, their only masterstroke would be to name their 2027 candidate - man or woman, now. It can’t wait.

However, the process of picking their candidate must be credible. If they can agree on a flagbearer early and begin propping up that individual, it will ease anxiety, reduce confusion and infighting, and allow for organised campaigns and effective coalition-building. 

But we must ask questions. There are those who spit on Kenyans’ faces and treat the government as a share enterprise. Where will they get the moral standing to seek the presidency? What would they tell Kenyans? What has changed?

The same question applies to those who abused power by defying court orders, causing rights abuses, and switching off television stations. What credibility would they carry? How about a former presidential running mate who couldn’t deliver even a single vote to her coalition in her home turf?

Then there’s the curious case of a politician who hastily formed a party to boost Azimio's fortunes in 2022, only for his outfit to be beaten by UDA in his turf. That individual has serious political lessons to learn. Still, bitter fellows who ate well only to wake up after being kicked out of the Cabinet have no moral authority to throw punches now.

For Mr Musyoka, he is better off being a kingmaker rather than a candidate. His candidacy would guarantee a walkover for President Ruto. His advanced age, disastrous 2007 run, and lack of national appeal have conspired to weaken his case, even if his heart is in it.

Similarly, despite Wiper’s rebranding plan, there’s little evidence of Mr Musyoka’s influence beyond Eastern and portions of Nairobi. Senator Enoch Wambua and other top cheerleaders should remind him that time is up. Why insist on contesting, then be beaten like a ‘burukenge’ in 2027?

The promise of Opposition unity isn’t enough. Whatever they chose to do, they must break free from outdated thinking. The team must strive to identify a fresh and energetic candidate who appeals to the Gen-Zs, has no baggage and symbolizes change, not status quo.

Mr Musyoka’s alliance should consider supporting Senator Okiya Omtatah or even a Gen-Z novice, who have zero baggage. That way the Opposition will lose but lose honourably. My opinion? A coalition of President Ruto and Mr Odinga is hard to beat at any rate.

Dr Ruto is a master strategist with a giraffe’s neck, while the ODM boss remains a key factor. Today, the president remains within a comfortable margin to cruise to re-election. The opposition must think beyond the surface.