Gachagua ouster still the rallying point for next polls

On November 4 last year, I wrote in these pages that the decision to jettison then-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua from the second most powerful office in the land would change Kenya’s political dynamics forever. Back then, the matter was fresh and undergoing litigation in the courts.

We cautioned that the move would not only jolt the populous Mt Kenya region – Gachagua’s backyard – into a bit of political buzz, but also send ripples across the country. Today, in virtually all pro-establishment rallies, attacking the former DP is now the done thing. And, interestingly, these seemingly well-coordinated verbal attacks do more to popularise the former DP than to demonise him. For, when you think about it, the desire of those who were behind Gachagua’s ouster would be to have him languish in political oblivion. Ironically, however, the Wamunyoro brigade has been kept vibrant and alive by efforts bankrolled by his detractors. It reminds one of the Moi days, when efforts to silence dissent ended up popularising some of the best-known opposition politicians, clerics, and human rights activists.

Besides giving the political kiss of life to the former DP, his ouster seems to have made him the lightning rod around which a new opposition is now forming. Indeed, when Dr Fred Matiang’i recently returned to the country, his first major political outing outside his Kisii home base was Wamunyoro village in Mathira, Nyeri County. It would not be inaccurate to say that the political space is now divided between those who support Gachagua and those who miss an opportunity to strike a political blow against the former DP, presumably to please the Kenya Kwanza top brass.

In the November column, we wrote that it would be naïve to assume that all would be well, politically at least, for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance in the Mountain after the ouster. And indeed, it has not been smooth sailing. Granted, supporters have cited the huge crowds that turned up at President Ruto’s rallies during his recent tour of the Mountain as evidence of his unwavering support in the region, which gave President Ruto the single biggest batch of votes that landed him in State House. The truth, however, is that even those who advance this argument know deep down that all they can hope for is a highly reduced number of votes from the region come the next polls. Indeed, there are clear signs that they are not counting on much in their strategies for the next polls.

Again, as we had warned, the purging of those who voted against Gachagua’s ouster in both Houses of Parliament has further heightened political temperatures in the Mountain, with those from the region fighting Gachagua unlikely to retain their seats in the next polls, unless, of course, they change tack or some seismic political counter-event or series of events changes the dynamics before the next elections.
The formation of a ‘broad-based government’ may have quieted things somewhat for the Ruto administration – and even lent it a few more hands in the well-orchestrated effort to cast the former DP as ‘mkabila’ – and which, as I have argued earlier, is a double-edged sword. But with murmurs of a rift in the opposition-in-government exploding into open anti-establishment defiance by such ODM stalwarts as Siaya Governor James Orengo, party Secretary-General and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, another headache moment is looming. And there are no prizes for guessing that the rising crescendo of defiance, unless it stops, may yet earn the so-called Wamunyoro Express a few more passengers. That, of course, will raise the stakes a notch higher ahead of and at the next elections.

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  No More Fear

Away from the Mountain, it is to be expected that the opposition, particularly the ODM party, will demand more from their newfound Kenya Kwanza political buddies to continue singing to the tune of the ruling coalition. There will be subtle and not-so-subtle efforts to contain the growing dissent in ODM, and this will add to the demands for more goodies from the Kenya Kwanza administration to keep those who choose to stay in the fold.
Consider this. The Gachagua ouster necessitated a reorganisation of the Cabinet, House leadership, and even ambassadorial and other state dockets. The ousted DP is now one of the hottest political topics around the country. The political arena, you may say, is split between those who support and those who don’t support the de facto driver of Wamunyoro Express.

Another interesting thing to watch, as we had mentioned in the opinion article of November last year, is the role Raila will play in local politics, especially after his AU Commission chairmanship bid flopped. We can only wait to see, though it would be preposterous to assume that he will have no say in local politics henceforth. And with dissenters within ODM boldly pointing out things that they don’t like in the ‘broad-based government’, Raila himself is in for a big dilemma. He has to choose between taking the flak for Kenya Kwanza’s governance issues and working with the government and enjoying its attendant perks.

As these developments unfold, remember there were suggestions before the AUC elections that even if Raila had won the continental seat, he could still have returned to the country midstream and prepared to run against Ruto in 2027. There were also suggestions that the AUC bid would have appeased Raila and kept him off local politics for some time. Those who held this view believed the greatest nightmare for UDA would be Raila losing the AUC bid and seeing an opportunity to run against Ruto in the next polls. And this after Ruto lost Gachagua and possibly a huge chunk of the Mt Kenya votes ahead of 2027 – or is it 2026? – elections. Well, the first part of that nightmare is now a reality. And with the cracks in ODM over ties with the Kenya Kwanza administration, we are headed for interesting political times indeed.

The common denominator in all these push-and-pulls is ousted Deputy President Gachagua. If in doubt, consider that the biggest debate around Dr Fred Matiang’i is not whether or not he is suited for the presidency, but rather whether it was wise for him to cast his lot with Wamunyoro Express.

Dr Matiang’i, whose name was brought back by Gen-Z social media posts, is being tipped as one of the likely opponents of Dr Ruto in the next polls. The youth cited Matiang’i’s past successes as Cabinet Secretary, even as Kenya Kwanza stalwarts catalogued his past failings for the whole world to see. Slowly, Dr Matiang’i is becoming a big name in Kenya’s politics, and it will be interesting to see whether the Gen-Z voters, probably coupled with a huge chunk of Mt Kenya votes, will be a match for the Kenya Kwanza brigade, which enjoys the benefits of incumbency and whatever may come out of the ‘broad-based government’ hope of translating Raila’s nationwide support into presidential votes for Dr William Ruto. Note that the largest blocks for the opposition now are Wamunyoro Express and Gen-Zs. It would not be inaccurate to say that with the de jure opposition in bed with the government, Wamunyoro Express and Gen-Zs, and of course, the media, are the new opposition. It will be interesting to see where it all ends. But one thing is certain. President Ruto must be regretting Gachagua's impeachment.