Ruto acid test as EAC chair in face of DRC crisis

As the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conflict deepens, a meeting called by President William Ruto to diffuse the escalating situation sailed into uncertain waters for a greater part of the day before being confirmed last evening.

Ruto, who is the current Chair of the East African Community (EAC), departed for Cairo, Egypt, for a two-day state visit casting more doubts as to whether the meeting would be held.

Unconfirmed reports say Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, who is accused of backing the M23 rebels that are tightening their grip on the Eastern city of Goma, had indicated that he would attend the Nairobi meeting.

By the time of going to press high placed sources within State House had indicated that the meeting would happen virtually at 8pm East Africa Time despite Ruto's Egypt visit.

President Ruto had earlier confirmed that both Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame had agreed to attend the meeting, signaling a potential path towards dialogue.

"We have agreed to have a meeting on Wednesday to discuss this crisis. Both Tshisekedi and Kagame have confirmed their attendance," Ruto said.

However, as the day progressed with media anticipating word on the fate of the talks, State House posted on X on Wednesday, of the meeting that the president had had with his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el Sisi. 

"The two countries are committed to diversifying trade, especially in agriculture, manufacturing, meat and meat products, horticulture and pharmaceuticals," Ruto wrote on X. 

It would later emerge that President Félix Tshisekedi would skip the meeting with the Rwandan leader in Nairobi.

 “The President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, will not participate in the virtual summit of heads of state of the East African Community,” the official Congolese Press Agency (ACP) announced on Wednesday. 

President Kagame also confirmed that he had had talks with U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who reportedly called on Rwanda to hasten the withdrawal of M23 forces in Goma. 

A report by AFP late Wednesday said “Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi declined to attend talks on Wednesday with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame”.

In Goma, the Rwanda-backed fighters controlled most of the besieged Goma city as residents slowly emerged from their homes after days of deadly fighting in the key mineral trading hub, according to AFP.

The M23 armed group and Rwandan troops have seized the airport and most of the center and neighbourhoods since marching into the eastern provincial capital on Sunday after a lightning offensive.

But analysts faulted the diplomatic gaffes by Ruto, in his attempt to bring the two leaders to the table for talks.

“The first thing to note is that the crisis in Eastern Congo has been continuing for a long, long time. And the Congo crisis itself is old” said Professor Peter Kagwanja, a political analyst Chief Executive Officer for Africa Policy Institute and a former government adviser.

“The intervention by Kenya as the chair of the East African community itself has some problems,” he added. 

He also faulted the president for reaching out to the French President before meeting the two leaders, since France has had a dark and controversial run, not just in the two countries, but also the entire region. Paris has also been facing a rebellion in its former colonies, especially within the Sahel Region. 

President Ruto had announced via X that he had spoken to French President, Emmanuel Macron, on the deepening crisis in eastern DRC. 

“First of all, I think the message that he made as Kenya is to start by calling President Macron, when you know there is a wave of anti-French resistance in much of the former Francophone countries, including Rwanda and Congo. So then, of course, when you think you're taking a position, then people like Kagame and others will take objection to that”. 

Kagwanja stated that the president should have gone about the issue through shuttle diplomacy, and quietly. 

 “You take a shuttle diplomacy to Rwanda, then you move from Rwanda to Congo, and then you agree that you all meet. And that would have been easier. So that is one problem”.

He added that former President, Uhuru Kenyatta, who was appointed chief mediator in the conflict, should have been involved. 

“Former President Uhuru Kenyatta has been mediating that crisis for a long time. It would have been very good to invoke his office as the person who has been doing the process. And the third point is that it is not only Congo and Rwanda that are involved in this conflict" Said Kagwanja.

“Burundi has over 2,000 of its troops supporting Congo against Rwanda. It is part of what they call the SADC force. So the long and short of it is that this is a more complex problem than just Rwanda and Congo…And this is not what you can call a rebellion. This is a proxy war,” said Kagwanja. 

Hassan Khannenje, the Director of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, a research and policy think-tank based in Nairobi said. 

“I think the perception that the desire to have the two leaders was a little bit rushed because parties to a conflict need to be ready to negotiate. And considering that things were very fresh, I think the perception is that the parties were not ready and they were not exactly willing to be able to enter into a negotiation at this stage because of the calculations of either wanting to retake the initiative by either party”, said Khannenje.

More neutral players should have been involved to diffuse the fluid situation through a ceasefire, he said and added "before engaging in more collaborative talks with the two key leaders". 

“M23, of course, was on the move. The government in Kinshasa was in the back foot and in the absence of even a ceasefire, for instance, I think both parties felt it was perhaps not exactly the right time,” stressed Khannenje. 

He also spoke of the soured ties between Nairobi and Kinshasa, which placed President William Ruto in a weaker position to negotiate a ceasefire. 

“Outside that, there is also a sense, Kinshasa and Nairobi had had a series of tensions in the last few years and some of those issues have not completely been worked on. And so there is some work to be done, especially from Nairobi's side, for it to be able to win the confidence of both parties. And because that confidence is what is critical to communicating the urgency as an honest broker to be accepted by both parties,” he elaborated. 

In November 2022, Kenya and Tanzania were part of the countries that deployed a peace keeping force under the East African Community Regional Force banner, to North Kivu.

President Felix Tsishekedi would later accuse the armies for not engaging in combat with M23. 

This led to a convolution of ties with Nairobi, which culminated in the withdrawal of Kenya Defense Forces from the Great Lakes nation in December 2023. 

The Congolese President would later turn to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) which deployed soldiers drawn from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi. 

But with the recent march on Goma by M23, which claimed lives of 17 SADC and UN peace keepers, President William Ruto’s standing as an honest arbitrator, now lies in the balance as both parties don’t seem to trust his impartiality. 

“Because of the tension in the East African community and the competing interest, of course, you would imagine that someone who is a lot more neutral from the outside would be preferable,” said Khannenje. 

On his part, Kagwanja had a damning view on Ruto’s chances at success over the issue. “ I would give him one out of ten points on this,” he said. 

 Khannenje was more sanguine. “The challenge is no one seems to be willing to do this. Now, the African Union would have been a good place to start from. Perhaps if the EU were to put together a group of eminent persons or an eminent person to come and start mediating that.

 But then, of course, a neutral”.

As diplomatic efforts by Nairobi strives for a solution, one medic told AFP that many bodies were still to be recovered in the city of one million people wedged between Lake Kivu and the Rwandan border. 

After fighting eased on Tuesday, only M23 fighters and Rwandan forces were visible on the streets.

People started emerging on Wednesday after days trapped inside homes without electricity. Some swam in Lake Kivu as sporadic gunshots echoed in the distance.

"It was a bit frightening with the gunshots we were hearing," student Merdi Kambelenge told AFP.

Rwanda's ambassador-at-large for the Great Lakes region Vincent Karega told AFP the M23 advance "will continue" into neighbouring South Kivu province.

It was even possible the fighters could push beyond the country's east, because all of the Congolese "forces and military capabilities were concentrated in Goma," Karega said.

Karega’s comments cemented an earlier position by United Nations and the U.S, accusing Rwanda of supporting the rebels.

The conflict in Eastern DRC, which has been raging since 1997, was triggered by Rwanda’s decision to pursue Interahamwe fighters who were accused of engendering a genocide of over 1 million Tutsis, who had sought refuge in North Kivu, which borders Rwanda. 

However, the fight for minerals, especially coltan, which is used in the manufacture of electronic products, has made the civil war a vexing diplomatic web, with more than 100 militias accused of aggravating the conflict.