Weatherman predicts drier, hotter long rain season

Residents of Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley and some parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley should expect above-average rainfall, the weatherman has announced.

According to the March-May 2025 long rain season weather forecast by Kenya Meteorological Department, 19 counties will continue to experience above the long-term average amounts with occasional breaks from February through May.

The counties include Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Narok, Bomet, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma and Southern parts of West Pokot.

Central and North of the Rift Valley regions including Nakuru, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia will receive below the long-term average amounts for the season in February. However occasional rainfall may be experienced in February.

According to KMD director General Dr David Gikungu, Turkana and Samburu and the Northern parts of West Pokot will have below average rainfall amounts for the season although a few areas bordering South Sudan are likely to experience near to above average rainfall.

“The March to May 2025 forecast indicates that near to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, most of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the southern parts of the Southeastern lowlands and the extreme northern parts of northwestern Kenya,” said Gikungu.

During the season, meteorologists predicted that several areas will have a generally poor to fair distribution of rainfall in both time and space.

“The onset of the season is expected to be normal to late onset, with occasional dry spells. Occasional storms are likely to be experienced in some parts of the country during the season,” said Gikungu.

However, the peak of the rains is expected to be in April for most regions, except over the Coastal Strip where the highest rainfall is expected in May.

According to the meteorologist, the temperature forecast indicates warmer than average temperatures are expected over the whole country, with higher probabilities over parts of the Northeastern, Coast, Southeastern, and Highlands East of the Rift Valley.

Counties in the the Highlands East of the Rift Valley including and Nairobi County, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern Laikipia will experience rainfall during the season, with some breaks.

The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the season's long-term average

Counties in the Southeastern Lowlands including Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta and Tana River will experience rainfall amounts near to below the long-term average for the season.

However, Kajiado and parts of Taita Taveta counties are likely to experience near to above average rainfall.

“The expected rainfall during the months of March to May long rains season is expected to have both negative and positive impacts across various sectors. The most likely impacts on various sectors will be highlighted by the sector leads,’ said Dr Gikungu.