Unforeseen events have conspired to give President the upper hand

Nature has a way of confounding man's best laid out plans and understanding. In the midst of charged denials about ill health, Raila Odinga died. The resultant transformation that Kenya’s political legion underwent in mourning him was remarkable. Momentarily, the country rallied.

A day after Raila's interment, some Tik Tokers mounted a body shaming challenge to mock a young man battling a medical condition he has no control over. That challenge was perhaps the dumbest thing this century, an indictment on Kenyan youth who should behave responsibly. In this instance, again, sober Kenyans rallied and called out the sick joke.

The challenge inadvertently vindicated President William Ruto’s criticism of youth, blaming their lack of emotional intelligence on parental failure. When an adult influences a minor to partake of a joke in extremely bad taste, or when teenagers who should be empathetic exhibit such insensitivity, the biggest culprit is lack of parental guidance.

The anger caused by the challenge was still swirling around when Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, a man who should know better, blurted and took Kenya back in time to October 25, 1969; a day animosity between the Kikuyu and Luo peaked and resulted in President Jomo Kenyatta’s entourage being pelted with stones in Kisumu. 

Kahiga's insensitive blurt, gloating that Raila’s death will restore the Kikuyu to their rightful place at the receiving end of State largesse, exposes a misplaced sense of entitlement to government goodies. Kahiga's utterance might have put paid to any support an assertive Rigathi Gachagua had garnered in Nyanza and Western where Raila was revered, especially because Kahiga is seen as Gachagua’s right hand man.

It doesn't help that unsavoury remarks about Raila's health were attributed to Gachagua, his subsequent denial notwithstanding. In anger, some ODM hirelings purported to ban Gachagua from setting foot in Bondo. 

In just one week, Gen Z and Gachagua appear to have lost the sympathy they had cultivated. If initially the tribalist tag on Gachagua was a mere label, Kahiga's unguarded utterances have cast the tag in stone. Henceforth, association with Gachagua is going to be an albatross around the opposition's neck.

These events have conspired to give Ruto a handle he can yank to befuddle a hesitant opposition. Moreover, Raila’s death and the attendant events showed us the soft side of Ruto that not many knew existed.

His eulogy, no doubt, could have led to introspection that fundamentally altered whatever impression some Kenyans had about him. Oftentimes, our perceptions of others are not formed by what we truly know about them, but by what others say about them. We tend to go along with other people’s views without interrogating them.

While ordinary Kenyans feud over UDA vs ODM duels, Raila and Ruto were the best of buddies. They were as thick as thieves and often consulted in times of need. If what Ruto said while eulogising Raila is true, and there is no reason to doubt him, he was there every inch of the way during Baba’s sickness and played a key role right from the time Raila was flown abroad for treatment to the the time of his death and interment. 

Outside the tough exterior, Ruto surprised many by acknowledging that Baba propped up his government when it was tottering, besieged by Gen Z, the Opposition and civil society activists. Baba would have taken advantage of the situation to speed up Ruto’s ejection, but he chose to stand by him at risk of losing support from some of his ardent followers. The reason given for Raila's stand, which was to stop anarchy, seems plausible with hindsight.

The coast, however, is not yet clear. Ruto must deal with factionalism inside ODM triggered by Raila’s passing. There are three factions under Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. Should Ruto prop up any of them in the Raila succession?

Whatever political decisions he makes going forward must, as a matter of necessity, incorporate the youth demographic. Today's youth agitation will definitely drive the future.