Political evolution: Is Joho ready to break ties with Raila in 2027

The story of Cabinet Secretary Hassan Ali Joho's political evolution from President Ruto's critic to his defender mirrors that of Okonkwo in Nigerian novelist Chinua Achebe's Things Fall Apart"

Okonkwo's strong desire to escape the destiny of his father, Unoka, who was viewed as weak and ineffective, drove his ascent to power in the story of the award-winning novel.

Joho refers to ODM leader Raila Odinga as his political father. Like Okonkwo, Joho never hides his plan to break ties with Raila to back President William Ruto if it guarantees him power after 2027.

Publicly, Joho has said he has supported Baba's five presidential bids in kind and cash and that it was time to chart his political course—even if it means parting ways with his 'political father'.

During last week's Governor Eid Celebration at Treasury Square Mombasa, Raila hit out at Ruto and vowed that ODM will field a presidential candidate in 2027, putting Joho in an awkward position.

This is after Joho, in his bravado and chest-thumping demeanour, had threatened journalists for painting the country negatively and praised the broad-based government as a key to prosperity.

Perhaps, like Okonkow, Coast political analysts say, Joho's recent protagonist demeanour is fuelled by hope that his wealth and title could enable him to achieve his political plan after the 2027 polls.

Pwani University don Hassan Mwakimako said Joho wants to be closer to power, and he is attacking the government's real and imaginary enemies to endear himself to Ruto.

“Joho has never been a defender of democracy. He does not want a political position; he wants to be a CS, and that is why he is singing praises for Ruto,” he argues.

Mwakimako, a coastal political analyst, said Joho might stick with Ruto even when ODM fields a presidential candidate in 2027, as announced by Raila, to protect his interests.

He notes that Joho’s recent positioning as a Coast kingpin is meant to show that he can move the region’s voting bloc to Ruto’s camp, which may be misconceived.

“But Joho has relied largely on the upcountry votes in Mombasa, and it may not move with him to Ruto’s camp in case ODM fields a presidential candidate," said Mwakimako.

Unlike the other "ODM experts" who joined the government eight months ago, Joho is the staunch supporter of Ruto's policies, attacking journalists, Gen Zs and online critics of the KKA regime.

Other ODM experts include Wycliffe Oparanya, CS for Cooperatives and MSMEs; John Mbadi, the CS for National Treasury; and Opiyo Wandayi, the CS for Energy.

Other critics say that Joho's passionate support of Ruto was driven by his commercial interest, especially in the shipping and logistics sector.

Pwani University lecturer Halim Shauri said Joho had no option but to sing Ruto’s praises, as the CS position was his golden opportunity after facing tribulations in the first months of Ruto's rule.

“For Joho, the CS job under the broad-based government is a unique opportunity. UDA is the hand that feeds him, and he has to ensure that the pot has no holes. He is a big beneficiary," he said.

He said Joho, Wandayi, Oparanya and Mbadi, who were once leading UDA critics, have undergone a major transformation in their political lives since they joined the government.

“For Joho in particular, his dream has come true. He landed the job by chance after being a leading critic of the president, and he has to guard it,” he noted.

The scholar, however, observed that Joho was not likely to jeopardise Raila or abandon him as the architect of the broad-based arrangement that benefitted him.

Before he entered into Cabinet, Joho faced legal battles with the KK regime that threatened to cripple his family’s shipping and logistics business empire in Mombasa, Nairobi and South Sudan.

He had to move to court to save his commercial empire after state agencies launched a barrage of cases to kick him out of the shipping and logistics sector, like the handling of South Sudan cargo.

In the run-up to 2022, Joho publicly vowed to repossess Ruto’s expansive farm in Taveta subcounty, Taita Taveta County, if Raila won, claiming that Ruto acquired it irregularly.

But during the vetting for the CS job, Joho said he would work under Ruto, noting anyone who does not change is a fool.

Joho had hoped to be appointed Lands CS in Raila’s government that never was, and his first assignment, he said, would have been to take back Ruto’s land.

But he appears to have now replaced Ms Aisha Jumwa as Ruto’s mouthpiece in the Coast region after she could not make it to the broad-based government.

It was a Damascus moment for the man who appeared to have huge differences with Ruto before he suddenly clinched his highest position ever in his long political career.

As a Cabinet member and Ruto ally, his family business empire at the port of Mombasa and elsewhere is secure, and he can explore new opportunities without hurdles, including the over Sh5 billion bulk grain handling facility.

Observers argue that he has focused more on his interests than on service delivery, noting that several projects in his docket are stuck under his watch.

They cite the Liwatoni fish complex, which was expected to create thousands of jobs, and the Bandari Maritime Academy (BMA) seafarers for the local and international labour market. BMA was recently closed down due to student unrest.

Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA), the maritime industry regulator, has also been hit by leadership wrangles that saw the removal of Director General Engineer Martin Munga and the replacement of Board of Directors chairman Mr Hamisi Mwaguya.

Kenya National Shipping Line (KNSL), which was supposed to undertake clearance of government cargo and serve as seafarers’ placement agent, is set to be scrapped after Cabinet approval.

Political analysts note that whether bolstering the Ruto team with Joho’s entry into government will give the president an advantage in the Coast or not, time will tell.

With Joho and Sports CS Salim Mvurya in his fold, Ruto hopes to win more votes in the six coastal counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Lamu.

Mombasa lawyer Mr Abubakar Yusuf warned that Ruto will get a shock of his political life if he depends on Joho to deliver votes without fulfilling his last election's pledges to the Coast.

He said the pledge to settle squatters by buying land from landlords and creating jobs for the youth has to be fulfilled for the new-look Coast team to attract votes in the next elections.

He said that if the broad-based government facilitates the creation of many jobs at the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone in Mombasa County, it may give a huge boost to Ruto's second bid.

“This union between Ruto and Raila is focused on winning the 2027 polls. It makes it easier for President Ruto to get more votes on the Coast. The question is, will they succeed?” He posed.

Prof. Mwakimako noted that Joho and Mvurya will bolster Ruto’s political agenda for the 2027 polls they and the government perform.

He opined that President Ruto settled on Joho and Mvurya as his Coast point men, together with Senate Speaker Amason Kingi, who hails from Kilifi County, to beef up his team in the region.