Experts: How diplomatic missteps cost Kenya the AUC chair seat

As Friday evening approached, Kenya faced uncertainty over its bid for Africa's top post, weighed down by a series of high-stakes diplomatic missteps.

 On Saturday, the election day, Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssouf won the seat in a closely contested vote in Addis Ababa, leaving Kenya to grapple with what went wrong.

 The loss has raised questions about Kenya's strategy. Analysts point to geopolitical dynamics and foreign policy inconsistencies, as noted by Frankline Mukwanja, Executive Director of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD).

 Analysts pointed to mistakes that may have cost former Prime Minister Odinga the position.

 "I wasn’t surprised by Odinga's loss," said Mukwanja. "I am of the view he had a very slim chance to emerge victorious, and this is informed by the geopolitical dynamics as well as historical precedents. There is a question as to whether the diplomatic actions of Kenya in the most recent past contributed to his failure."

 "Let me take you back to October-November 2023, at the height of the Israel-Hamas war. It seemed Kenya's position on the two-state solution was inconsistent with what others think and act. You cannot talk about terrorism and not talk about occupation,” he noted.

 "President William Ruto condemned terrorism while leaving out the occupation issue. He later tried to address it during the Riyadh engagement with African Heads of State and the Saudi Government, showing inconsistency. Could that have played into the challenges Odinga faced, especially in inspiring confidence in the Northern region?"

 More than 100 officials travelled with Odinga to Addis Ababa, a move some viewed as excessive and poorly coordinated.

 "Sending such a large delegation without clear roles raised concerns," said Prof Maxwel Miyawa. "It gave the impression of a publicity stunt rather than focused diplomatic engagement."

 While the spectacle of song and dance just hours before the vote showed enthusiasm, some observers said it reflected a focus on theatrics over meaningful diplomatic work.

 A key blunder occurred when President Ruto engaged with French President Emmanuel Macron on the Great Lakes conflict without broader African consultation, raising concerns about Kenya's unilateral approach.

 "That decision unsettled some Francophone countries," Miyawa explained. "It came across as a unilateral move rather than a collaborative African-led approach."

 The perceived tilt toward Western powers, particularly France and the United States, may have cost Kenya important votes.

 "Our neighbours do not owe us solidarity," said former UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi, who stressed the importance of recruiting young talent and providing early exposure to global institutions to build long-term diplomatic capacity.

 "Diplomacy requires genuine partnerships, not assumptions of support," he added.

 Miyawa said the vote also revealed deep linguistic and regional divides in Africa, with peer rivalry and language affiliations shaping the outcome.

 Francophone countries, particularly from West Africa, backed Youssouf, wary of Kenya's recent foreign policy moves. Experts said Kenya's diplomatic team did not fully address the linguistic, regional, and geopolitical dynamics, despite widespread lobbying efforts.

 Recent abductions of foreign nationals in Nairobi have heightened security concerns, raising questions about Kenya's internal stability. Incidents involving Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye and Tanzanian activist Maria Sarungi Tsehai may have damaged its regional image, potentially influencing the AUC vote.

 "Such incidents create doubts about our stability," said Miyawa. "Diplomatic ties are built on trust, and these events could have influenced perceptions."

 

The voting process saw Odinga lead initially but lose after seven rounds, with Youssouf securing 33 votes to win.

 In the first round, Odinga garnered 20 votes against Youssouf's 18, while Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar secured 10 votes, with one abstention. In the second round, Odinga had 22 votes, Youssouf 19, and Randriamandrato 7, again with one abstention.

 The third round saw Youssouf take the lead with 23 votes against Odinga's 20, while Randriamandrato got 5 votes and was eliminated. Youssouf maintained his lead in the fourth round, scoring 25 votes to Odinga's 21. In the fifth round, Youssouf secured 26 votes, while Odinga got 21, with one abstention.

 In the sixth round, the tally stood at 26 for Youssouf and 22 for Odinga, with one abstention. Odinga was eliminated after the sixth round. Youssouf, running unopposed, secured 33 votes in the seventh round, meeting the required two-thirds threshold and winning the AUC Chair seat. He will replace outgoing chair Moussa Faki of Chad.

 As Kenya reviews the failed bid, analysts recommend a strategy shift, with Mukwanja calling for consistent foreign policy to regain trust.

 "Even when you look at age and the question of dynamism the role requires, Djibouti presented a diplomat with more than 30 years of experience," Mukwanja said. "Experience, age, vitality and our naive, inconsistent foreign policy — particularly regarding the Great Lakes conflict and the Israel-Hamas war — all played into the regional alliances that hurt Kenya's bid."

 Kituyi urged the government to invest in young talent for international roles, saying early exposure to global institutions could help build stronger diplomatic skills.