Rock and hard place: Baggage presidential hopefuls bring

With the emergence of two major alignments, many Kenyans would be aligning with either side. However, Kenyans on social media have recently shown a yearning for an alternative political voice.

The two main budding formations feature President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in one corner and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and other opposition politicians in another.

Both sides command significant followings among Kenyans, and their coming together undoubtedly aims to exploit this fact. All signs show that their respective bases are boarding. Some are slower than others.

However, youthful Kenyans on social media are proving harder to entice. And so the prospects that a David Maraga, former Chief Justice, or an Okiya Omtatah, the Busia Senator, could be President are finding favour among them.

They are quick to point out the traditional options as tainted, highlighting the baggage they believe weighs their respective candidacies down.

Dr Ruto suffers the curse of incumbency that has made presidents easy targets. His administration has done little to beat allegations of rights abuses. Government critics have been killed and abducted, with the State initially denying such atrocities were happening.

The targets have mostly been youthful protesters seeking better governance. It is this population, which will constitute the bulk of the 5.6 million new voters the electoral commission seeks to enrol ahead of the 2027 polls, that every politician is scrambling to woo.

“Ruto will get a few votes from the youth,” said Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo. "He lied to the Finland President (Alexander Stubb), the world and Kenyans by claiming that all those who had been abducted were released. Many Kenyans are still missing. Many families are still crying for their children."

Maanzo argued that the continued arrests of government critics, such as Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, still anger the youth.

Ruto also faces the baggage of the high cost of living, which drove Kenyans to protests in 2023. Similarly, his government is perceived as corrupt, allegations that Gachagua and former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi have doubled down on in recent months, and apathetic to the needs of Kenyans.

During last year’s youth-led protests, Kenyans protested the public flaunting of opulence by government officials amid high living costs and which was driving many to desperation.

The President, also perceived as dishonest and uneager to solve the teething issues in his government. He responded to growing criticism by seeking a truce with Raila, a political solution that essentially swept demands for good governance under the carpet.

“While the 2027 general elections will be driven by both emotional and rational considerations, a demonstrated track record of success will inspire confidence in the candidates’ capacity to translate promises into deliverables. President Ruto, by either acts of omission or commission, may suffer in this regard if his signature programmes don’t move the needle,” said political risk analyst Dismas Mokua.

In Raila, Ruto has as much a chance to reap big in the next polls as a heavy load. Accommodating the former prime minister has cost him five cabinet secretary slots already and could cost him more if they are to form a coalition in 2027, reducing the number of allies he can woo with the promise of State appointments.

 “⁠It would be naive to wish away President Ruto. President Ruto has demonstrated that he has the capacity and competence to wage a successful campaign in the middle of turbulence,” argued Mokua.

Raila knows a thing or two about bearing someone else’s load. In the last poll, he was seen as former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s project by some voters. Ruto, Raila’s opponent in that election, painted him as so. The opposition veteran’s March 2018 handshake with Uhuru offered Ruto the chance to heap the failures of the Jubilee government on Raila, which the former prime minister struggled to shed.

The 80-year-old opposition chief has his own baggage. Over the years, Raila has gained a reputation as a champion for constitutional ideals and a voice of the downtrodden. This legacy has made him popular among ordinary Kenyans. However, he has recently been faulted for allegedly betraying Kenyans by associating with Ruto and for pursuing selfish interests in several handshakes with successive presidents.

Before Ruto and Uhuru, Raila shook hands with the late former Presidents Mwai Kibaki and Daniel Moi. With Moi, he secured a cabinet slot and was made the secretary general of the independence party, Kanu.

The situation was markedly different with Kibaki, with whom Raila formed a grand coalition government and secured half of the cabinet positions. The truce was essentially forced by the deadly clashes that followed the 2007 general election, whose credibility the then electoral commission could not vouch for, inviting assertions that Raila had been cheated out of the presidency.

It is unclear whether Raila will make a sixth stab at the presidency, but he would likely confront questions about his trustworthiness, especially in light of accusations that he hijacked the Gen-Z protests to secure a deal with Ruto after promising to sit out the youth-led agitation.

"Raila stands the best chance of being President, more than any other candidate," said university don Charles Ng'ang'a. "If everyone sat down and decided that one person would contest against Ruto, that person would win."

Dr Ng'ang'a argued that Raila could bolt out and say that he had joined Ruto as a strategy to weaken the President.

Their opponents, too, bear heavy loads. Gachagua, for instance, carries the tag of being a tribal bigot, which he earned for championing the interests of the Mount Kenya region and often seeming to alienate other regions.

He was mostly infamous for equating Kenya to a shareholding entity, with the most stake held by communities that voted for the Kenya Kwanza administration. Since he was elected deputy president in 2022, Gachagua fought for dominance in Mt Kenya, which his impeachment last October essentially secured for him.

Gachagua has been an easy target for allegations of tribalism, with Ruto labelling him and his opposition coalition as ethnic mobilisers. The former DP last week formed his political vehicle, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) , which featured officials from various regions. How he manoeuvres the political landscape could determine whether negative perceptions about him will change.

By claiming to have been used to push controversial narratives, such as the shareholding agenda, Gachagua also risks inviting concerns about his capability to hold independent thought, which some observers have argued is manifest in the formation of his party for “the wrong reasons.”

“Voters are unlikely to invest in Gachagua’s candidature or interests because he is using general elections to settle personal scores and he lacks national interests,” argued Mokua.

Then there is Kalonzo, who has shelved his presidential ambitions to support Raila in the last three elections, even after vowing against supporting the former premier. Before he reunited with Raila in 2013, Kalonzo was chided as a “watermelon” for allegedly wavering in his stance.

Raila baptised the former vice president watermelon for his mixed positions on the 2010 Constitution, which Kalonzo eventually supported. That tag has lived with him since, with the Wiper leader later embracing it.

"The watermelon tag belongs to Raila. Kalonzo has been very consistent. If he were a watermelon, he would have gone with Raila into the broad-based government, but he listened to the cry of Kenyans and stayed with them," said Maanzo.

Besides that, there is also the assertion that Kalonzo lacks the aggressiveness that would propel him to high office. Recently, he has earned comparisons to Gachagua, who only emerged into the scene in 2017, but is already causing shockwaves. Analysts have observed that it is as though Kalonzo hopes to reap from an endorsement that might never come.

Maanzo argued that Kalonzo's experience in legislation and administration and his temperament would endear him to the masses.

In a previous interview, Mokua said Kalonzo lacked the “killer instinct” that has seen the political heavyweights punish dissidents and reward loyalists.

Matiang’i’s candidature was first floated at the height of the Gen Z protests. His reputation for reform in the Education Ministry and ruthless handling of ineptitude endeared him to Kenyans. However, he has recently drawn attention for his tenure at the helm of the Interior Ministry in Uhuru’s government.

He oversaw a ministry widely criticised for wanton rights abuses in the form of extra-judicial killings and enforced disappearances. Under Matiang’i’s watch, the nation would learn of the shocking dumping of bodies of Kenyans in several rivers, the most notorious being River Yala.

The government would mostly turn a blind eye to the killings, which rights groups said looked like they were sanctioned by the State. The flagrant abuse saw the respect for human rights feature as a campaign agenda, with Ruto calling out his former boss, Uhuru, and vowing to uphold human dignity.

As cabinet secretary, Matiang’i also failed to bring the police, perennially accused of excesses, to order. Security agents often reacted violently to the opposition’s anti-government protests, with the killing of six-month-old baby Samantha Pendo in 2017 standing out as the worst case of police brutality.

Matiang’i is also confronted by claims that he is Uhuru’s project, especially given the fact that the former president’s Jubilee Party has embraced his candidature, with its secretary general Jeremiah Kioni saying Matiang’i would be the party’s flagbearer.

To help avert such a narrative, Gachagua recently advised the former cabinet secretary to form his party and shun Jubilee, which may also work to favour Gachagua’s quest to tame competition from other parties in Mt Kenya.

⁠Mokua said that Matiang'i's candidacy had presented voters with the choice of "status quo or change candidates."