The battle for Opposition supremacy: Who will have the last word?

The clouds are gathering over Kenya’s political scene, and the storm brewing could reshape the future of the opposition.

With the 2027 election on the horizon, political heavyweights like Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, and even former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua are all jockeying for posts angling to challenge President William Ruto’s administration.

Yet, as these political titans strategise, one question looms: Who will emerge as the opposition’s undisputed leader? And who will be left behind?

For decades, opposition politics in Kenya revolved around Raila Odinga. But with his future uncertain, the battle for succession is wide open.

Can these leaders unite behind a single candidate, or is this yet another fragile alliance doomed to unravel before 2027?

Political analyst and governance expert Prof. Gitile Naituli believes it is too early to declare a front-runner, but argues that those with strong party structures and aggressive mobilisation efforts will gain an edge.

“Right now, you cannot tell who will be the front-runner because they are just starting out. However, some are more aggressive than others, and that will give them an edge,” said Naituli.

Governance expert Javas Bigambo warns that assuming a unified opposition is premature. He predicts shifting alliances and the potential formation of multiple coalitions.

“It is too early to make such a call. There might be two or three coalitions. While they may all appear in opposition, they won’t necessarily form a single unit,” opines Bigambo.

Historian and political analyst Prof. Macharia Munene suggests that—for now—the opposition is rallying around Kalonzo Musyoka.

“Right now, they are gravitating around Kalonzo—unless he messes up along the way,” says Munene.

Who has the numbers?
According to Prof Naituli, Kalonzo Musyoka’s achilles' heel has always been his struggle to rally support beyond his Ukambani stronghold. While he commands loyalty in his base, his national appeal remains limited.

Bigambo warns that 2027 may be Kalonzo’s last realistic shot at the presidency.

“Kalonzo has one bullet left. If he does not run for office in 2027, then his time in politics could be over,” he notes. 

For former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, the challenge is different. While he enjoys goodwill from his time in government, he lacks a solid grassroots base.

Prof. Macharia Munene argues that Matiang’i’s current backing is largely external, with minimal grassroots support. 

“What Matiang’i has so far is foreign support and a few allies from his backyard. Outside that, he doesn’t have a force,” Munene observed.
Eugene Wamalwa, analysts suggest, could be a viable running mate for Kalonzo. 

However, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya may also seek that position, adding another layer of competition.

Bigambo cautions that Natembeya’s ambitions are risky. If the opposition fails in 2027, his political trajectory could stall.

Then there’s Martha Karua. While respected for her reformist stance, she has never commanded a large voter bloc. Analysts agree that if the opposition unites, her best bet would be a run for Kirinyaga governor rather than the presidency.

And then there’s the wild card; Rigathi Gachagua. His biggest gamble lies in whether he can command the Mt. Kenya vote if he were to break ranks with Ruto. Would the region rally behind him, or would they remain loyal to the President?

Despite the uncertainty surrounding his position, Naituli believes Gachagua retains a significant political base, making him a key player in the opposition’s evolving dynamics. 

Prof Macharia Munene shares a similar view, adding: “It wouldn’t be surprising if Ruto extends an olive branch to Gachagua in a bid to neutralise him and protect his own political interests.”

Can the Opposition hold together?
While the opposition currently has momentum, its biggest challenge is unity.

Munene warns that disorganisation could hand Ruto an easy victory.

“Right now, the president is very weak. That is why the team is posturing. However, if they do not plan accordingly, they might give Ruto a chance to recover,” he averred. 

Bigambo agrees, noting that Ruto’s vulnerabilities are significant but that the opposition’s greatest threat is itself.

The Gen Z factor: A game changer?
Beyond party politics, the youth vote—particularly Gen Z—could be a decisive factor in 2027.

But, analysts are skeptical about their actual impact. While Gen Z represents a massive voting bloc, many lack national IDs and voter registration cards.

Bigambo dismisses their influence, terming them political “smoke”—visible but lacking electoral weight.

Munene, however, believes that if Gen Z mobilises and registers in large numbers, they could reshape the race.

“Gen Zs are a big voice but they are disadvantaged because they don’t have IDs or voter cards. However, if they get them on time, they might have some political muscle,” the expert says. 

With 2027 fast approaching, the key questions remain—can they unite behind a single candidate? Will internal rivalries weaken them before they even mount a challenge? And will Gen Z, if mobilised, tip the scales? 

For now, the political storm continues to build, but whether it brings change or chaos remains to be seen.