Two edged sword: Raila-Ruto deal can build, destroy country at will

President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga have committed to implementing a report of the defunct National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) which promises constitutional amendments.

If they stay true to their word, the pair, now cooperating formally through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) they signed last week, would not hesitate to amend constitutional provisions that do not require a referendum.

Both Dr Ruto and Raila have said they would use their partnership to drive progress and solve the country’s challenges. The MoU they signed includes provisions for easing the burden on the shoulders of Kenyans, curbing opulence, ending abductions and fighting corruption.

“I want to thank Raila Odinga as the foremost patriotic leader who has accepted that we should unite this country so that we can focus on the transformation of our nation,” Ruto said during a Thursday rally in Kibra, Nairobi.

On the same day, Raila said the partnership was aimed at addressing issues such as the high cost of living, corruption, ethnic discrimination and the breakdown witnessed in the health sector courtesy of the Social Health Insurance Fund.

“I have assured them that we are committed to ensuring that the issues that are of concern to them are attended to and rectified. I have told them that we stand for the welfare and well-being of Kenya,” Raila said after meeting surviving Mau Mau veterans and their kin in Nairobi.

Since they closed ranks last July,  Ruto and Raila have shown how much power they wield jointly. A motion to impeach former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua passed in both houses of Parliament without any meaningful resistance shows the political might at the pair’s disposal.

At the National Assembly, 281 Members of Parliament voted to sink Gachagua, with 44 lawmakers opposing the bid. Some 53 out of 66 senators upheld the impeachment based on the first charge. In both instances, the two-thirds threshold was easily shattered, 86 per cent at the National Assembly and 80 per cent at the Senate.

Such numbers should, ordinarily, have been difficult to raise. But not to Ruto and Raila, whose respective parties, the United Democratic Alliance and Orange Democratic Movement, boast of the highest numbers of lawmakers. UDA bagged 143 elective and nominative MP slots in 2022, with ODM securing 89.

These numbers mean they can pass amendments to the Constitution, which require the support of two-thirds of all MPs. With the numbers, the two can be a force of good or evil. With them lies the power to implement pro-people or unpopular policies.

The two have enough numbers in Parliament to ease the tax burden on Kenyans by dropping unpopular measures. They could also choose to burden Kenyans more without much resistance.

“With the opposition dead, there is no one to speak about issues affecting mwananchi,” said economist Patrick Muinde.

“Ruto will get away with every policy that reaches Parliament. The voices in Parliament have died. These will be tough times,” Muinde added.

Francis Owakah, who teaches philosophy at the University of Nairobi, argues that while Ruto and Raila would want to change laws to suit their interests, they would be unsuccessful owing to public pressure.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo shares similar views, saying:

“Power belongs to the people. As the ‘people’s president’, Raila has exercised such power, but Ruto, who has ceded all his power to Raila, cannot be helped. He is very unpopular and Raila is smart enough to leave him.”

Maanzo warned that many of the MPs giving the Head of State the illusion of power would desert him when it comes down to their political survival.

“None of them would want to go against the people,” he asserted.

Indeed, it was public pressure, at the height of a youth-led revolt against proposed tax hikes, that forced Ruto into seeking out Raila. Since they teamed up, they have somewhat managed to tame the all-out resistance witnessed in June and July last year and, to some extent, dictated how the country’s politics would play out.

After months of tussling over the reconstitution of the electoral commission, Ruto and Raila last July agreed on the framework to recruit new commissioners and set the ball rolling for the exercise. They had stalled the process until they could agree, jeopardising a boundary review exercise that was due in March 2024.

In a recent interview, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua had sensationally accused the Head of State of intending to put in place an Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) he could control as a broader plan of allegedly influencing the next election.

“The President pronounced himself before me many times that, as President, he needs to manage the electoral cycle from the IEBC all the way to the Supreme Court,” said Gachagua.

Governance consultant Tom Mboya argues that it was risky for the Head of State to have such control.

“Unchecked power is always dangerous. Raila and Ruto control the largest electoral constituencies. They are able to make decisions that suit their interests,” said Mboya.

“The flip side of the coin is that there is an opportunity to implement progressive pro-people policies, but the question is will they do that? We cannot ignore the reality or be naïve about why they have come together,” he said, adding:

Over the past few months, Ruto’s partnership with Raila has been faulted as aimed at sharing positions. Such assertions have been backed by the fact that the former premier donated five of his allies, John Mbadi (National Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community), to Ruto’s Cabinet, with more expected to join in a looming shuffle.

The Nadco report that they both committed to implementing could create a prime minister’s position and two deputies, as well as the office of the leader of the official opposition. A joint committee of the National Assembly and Senate rejected both provisions.

The current deal between the President and the former Prime Minister has often seemed like a fallback plan to the loss Raila suffered in his quest to be the African Union Commission chairperson last February. Observers had argued that Ruto had wanted to have Raila exit the local political stage so that he would inherit his bases.

The fact that Ruto invoked Raila’s name as he campaigned in the former premier’s bases in Nairobi last week betrayed the President’s intentions at securing his partner’s strongholds as he seeks re-election in 2027.

And so it seems as though, as Mboya has argued, that the intentions for the ‘broad-based’ unity were mostly selfish and informed by the next election. Dr Owakah, the philosopher, agreed with this assertion.

“Did the two unite out of goodwill? No. It was not a popular handshake and it was not a result of a people-driven process. Ruto wants to push out pressure on him to perform and Raila is interested in personal legacy. But they are both cunning and interested in checkmating each other,” said Owakah.

Muinde, the economist, holds that the two are “out of touch with reality.”

“Last year, Kenyans made demands for accountability, a reduction in the tax burden and in the wastage of public resources, but that is not happening. The new arrangement looks like it will take the form of the Building Bridges Initiative, which had a budget created to drive its agenda. There is no value addition to mwananchi in pushing for such an agenda. The layperson does not benefit. The handshake is about the two leaders and their close associates,” he said.

Despite Ruto’s and Raila’s declarations of good intentions, little has come in terms of providing mwananchi some relief.

Since the ‘broad-based’ government came into place, the government has introduced new deductions that have squeezed the taxpayer harder. They include a 2.75 per cent deduction on gross earnings, which kicked off last October. Salaried Kenyans were last month hit with a 6 per cent deduction as contributions to the National Social Security Fund.

“We do not have any tangible proposals (to ease the tax burden) besides the amendment to have the housing levy and Social Health Authority contributions deducted before PAYE. There is equally no effort in the Budget Policy Statement,” said Muinde.

Maanzo says that the handshake has secured some improvements in areas such as taming abductions and killings of government critics.

“But they are still going on,” he added a rider, stating that he does not think the President would achieve any meaningful gains despite poaching Raila.

“Ruto will do nothing in developing the country,” said the senator.