Why Ruto can't sit pretty after by-election victories

The just-concluded by-elections were widely viewed as a litmus test of party strength and candidate appeal ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Overall, President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) gave the United Opposition a serious challenge, winning multiple seats across the country.

Yet a closer look at the tight margins in several races suggests that the stage is set for an extremely competitive 2027 contest, especially in key battleground regions.

As the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced the results, political observers began dissecting the significance of the outcomes.

In the Malava by-election, David Ndakwa of the UDA was declared the MP-elect after garnering 21,564 votes. Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) came second with 20,210 votes.

In Mbeere North, UDA candidate Leonard Muthende won the constituency seat with 15,802 votes, narrowly defeating Newton Kariuki (Karish) of the Democratic Party (DP), who garnered 15,308 votes.

With these victories, the ruling party strengthens its presence in Malava and Mbeere North — constituencies that will contribute to its parliamentary numbers ahead of the 2027 General Election.

However, the narrow margin in Malava of just 1,354 votes coupled with allegations of malpractice and violence, suggests that the contest may leave lingering tensions and fuel grievances among supporters of the United Opposition.

Political analysts note that the results highlight the complex interplay of party loyalty and individual candidate appeal in Kenya’s unpredictable by-election terrain.

Governance expert Francis Ominde says the government is “walking a tightrope” with little room for error.

He insists the by-elections might not be a clear indicator of what will happen in 2027.

“It’s just a morale booster for the President but has nothing to do with the 2027 elections,” said Ominde.

According to Ominde, if state machinery were fully deployed, the ruling side would have secured a landslide victory, yet the opposition still forced a close contest.

“We have seen shifting loyalty. For example, in Malava, considered a pro-government zone, the United Opposition gave them a run for their money,” he noted.

He added that with a stronger strategy, the United Opposition “might just pull a fast one on Ruto’s administration come 2027.”

Malava has 94,447 registered voters spread across seven wards and 198 polling stations, making it one of the constituencies with the highest number of polling stations in Kakamega County.

The Malava parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of Malulu Injendi, who passed away in February at Nairobi Hospital.

Malulu was serving his third term under the dissolved Amani National Congress (ANC).

The United Opposition, led by former Deputy President and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, and former National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, campaigned vigorously in the by-elections.

The government side in Malava, led by UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had mounted a high-level, well-funded campaign spearheaded by President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa were also actively present.

UDA leaders had spent months in the region launching development pledges, attending fundraisers for church groups, women’s groups, and bodaboda riders, and hosting delegations in Nairobi.

Teachers, church leaders, and other community groups were also engaged. Though the ruling coalition ultimately clinched the seat, analysts warn that the narrow victory margin should worry them.

Western Kenya’s more than 2.2 million votes are expected to be hotly contested in the 2027 Presidential race. In the 2022 General Election, Raila Odinga dominated the region, with Ruto coming second.

Given that the two sides governing today were once rivals, analysts expected a landslide for the pro-government side — but Malava has proved otherwise.

Experts warn that the government may not have the resources or machinery to replicate “Malava-style” operations in every constituency in 2027.

In Mbeere North, UDA’s Muthende won with 15,802 votes, beating the opposition’s Kariuki by 500 votes. Political analyst Moses Ombayo believes this is a signal that the Mount Kenya vote may be shifting and charting its own path away from the 2022 vote pattern. 

“This is a clear indication that the Mount Kenya vote is not as firm as it was in 2022. Ruto must be worried and rethink strategies to secure loyalty,” said Ombayo.

He further noted that Gachagua and the United Opposition have room for growth despite their losses.
“They must move beyond one-term slogans and make serious ground efforts that will make them likable to voters,” he said.

UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar defends that narrow margins in Malava and Mbeere North mirror patterns seen in previous elections, including 2022.

He said the coalition won 12 out of 24 contests nationwide, attributing the success to the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Even the United Opposition posted remarkable results in regions that were pro-government like Kilifi.

In the Magarini by-election, Harrison Kombe of ODM was declared MP-elect after garnering 17,909 votes, with Stanley Kenga of DCP finishing second with 8,907 votes.