Ruto can't revel in glory as warning shot are fired ahead of 2027

Even as broad-based government engages in political reveling following victories in hotly contested elections, the just concluded mini-polls have proven a warning shot to President William Ruto and his allies ahead of the 2027 general election.

Despite the widely reported heavy government interference, voter intimidation and apparent police complacency, candidates under the broad-based government won narrowly as the opposition candidates waded through the political intemperance to register impressive numbers.

Granted, President Ruto and his allies managed to clinch majority of the seats in what was seen as a dress rehearsal for the bigger and looming general elections.

In Malava, which has been a literal battleground between the government and the opposition, United Democratic Alliance’s candidate David Ndakwa secured 21,564 votes to defeat DAP K’s Seth Panyako with a slim margin of 1,354 votes.

The government side in Malava, led by UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), had mounted a high-level, well-funded campaign spearheaded by President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa were also actively present.

UDA leaders had spent months in the region launching development pledges, attending fundraisers for church groups, women’s groups, and bodaboda riders, and hosting delegations in Nairobi. Though the ruling coalition ultimately clinched the seat, analysts warn that the narrow victory margin should worry them.

In Mbeere North, Leo Wa Muthende grabbed the MP seat after narrowly edging out Democratic Party’s Newton Kariuki by 494 votes, with Muthende securing 15,802 votes and Kariuki garnering 15,308 votes. 

The broad-based outfit however recorded an impressive win in Banissa after its candidate, Ahmed Maalim Hassan secured 10,431 votes while the opposition candidate, Nurdin Maalim Mohamed, of the United Progressive Alliance party, only got 1,226 votes. In Magarini, ODM’s Harrison Kombe was declared the MP-elect after garnering 17,909 against Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Stanley Kenga, who came a distant second with 8,907 votes.

Boyd Were was also celebrated for his Kasipul win, after gathering 16,819 votes against independent candidate Philip Aroko’s 8,476.  

ODM’s winning streak extended to Ugunja Constituency, where ODM’s Moses Omondi clinched the MP seat after getting 9,227 votes against Wiper Party’s Orodi Odhiambo who garnered 1,819 votes.  In Baringo, UDA's Vincent Chemitei took the senatorial seat.

But notwithstanding the wins by UDA, ODM and their affiliate parties, victories of the united opposition in the civic seats were telling. The former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua-led opposition’s win of MCA seats in Kariobangi, Nyamira and Narok told of a revolt by voters at the local level against President Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration.

Pundits now argue that ahead of the 2027 general poll, President Ruto should embark on an even  more arduous task of consolidating his support bases and picking up the pieces in areas where his outfit was dealt a blow by the opposition, as he intends to give the Presidency a second stab.

“There is nothing much for Ruto and those in the broad-based government to celebrate save for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi who now have a new lease of political life for delivering the votes in the Mt Kenya and Western regions - amid talk of them being dumped come the general elections,” said Governance expert Professor Macharia Munene.

“The president cannot afford to sit pretty and assume that he will automatically win the 2027 elections based on the outcome of the mini polls. The circumstances in 2027 are likely to be different because there will be a higher voter turnout and the opposition will be working to close the margins with which they lost the votes,” he added.

In the run-up to the by-elections, Ruto allies had also expressed overconfidence in trumping their rivals, but for some, the outcome was devastating.

In Kabuchai ward, Speaker Moses Wetangula’s candidate Vincent Maunda, contesting under the Ford-Kenya banner, lost to independent candidate Eric Wekesa. Maunda garnered 2,765 votes while Wekesa got 6,162 votes. Wekesa was backed by DAP-k’s Governor George Natembeya, Wycliffe Wangamati and area MP Majimbo Kalasinga.

In Nyamira, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) party swept all three MCA by-elections in Nyamaiya, Ekerenyo, and Nyansiongo wards.  

And in Kisia East MCA by-election, DCP’s Aduda Okwiri emerged victorious with 1,952 votes, beating out MDG’s Joel Ongoro who secured 1,541votes.

Political analysts also note that the results highlight the complex interplay of party loyalty and individual candidate appeal in Kenya’s unpredictable by-election terrain.

Governance expert Francis Ominde says the government is “walking a tightrope” with little room for error, and the by-elections might no be a clear indicator of what will happen in 2027.

“It’s just a morale booster for the President, but it has nothing to do with the 2027 elections,” said Ominde, who also argues that the ruling side should have secured a landslide victory because of the use of state machinery and resources that were fully deployed, yet the opposition still forced a close contest.

“We have seen shifting loyalty. For example, in Malava, considered a pro-government zone, the United Opposition gave them a run for their money,” he noted. He added that with a stronger strategy, the United Opposition “might just pull a fast one on Ruto’s administration come 2027.”

 Leadership and Governance Expert Bosco Mutegi, however, observes that the take-home from the by-elections was that Ruto has a real shot at clinching a second term in 2027, and the majority wins were an added advantage for him.

“Through the by-elections, the impression Ruto has created is that those who claimed to be gatekeepers of the Mt Kenya and Western regions are not. He may not sit pretty ahead of 2027, but he knows he is at an advantage. The wins under the broad-based government also show that Ruto is not a one-term president, as his influence is far-reaching into the grassroots,” stated Mutegi.   

Prof Peter Kagwanja, CEO Africa Policy Institute, averred that the high-stakes nature of the by-elections had been brought about by the unfinished business between President Ruto and his estranged Deputy Gachagua.

“The shadow behind this battle is the unfinished impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua and you can see it rippling across various areas in the country. This election is larger than what we see happening…,” said Kagwanja.

“This election was within the larger political context of the 2027 electoral politics, and as a result, there has been a disproportional dispensation of resources to areas such as Malava and Mbeere North to the extent that we can’t say this was a free and fair election. It is a very tantalizing moment for the country with our democracy playing out in a very public way, but at the same time a moment of reflection on whether we are going the right way or we are headed towards electoral autocracy,” he added.