Old power falls apart in Mulembe nation

For decades, the sprawling, verdant hills of Western Kenya, popularly known as the home of the Mulembe people, have served as the ultimate swing vote in the nation’s high-stakes political poker game.

Some pundits have attributed Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s 2022 loss to the quarter a million votes that left him and went to UDA candidate William Ruto.

And now, as the clock ticks toward the 2027 General Election, the traditional “Mulembe” unity is facing its most existential threat yet.

From the dramatic ouster and temporary court-ordered resurrection of high-profile Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leaders to the crumbling of long-standing party bastions, the political tectonic plates beneath Bungoma, Trans-Nzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, and Busia are shifting with violent unpredictability.

At the heart of the current upheaval is the high-octane drama within ODM, a party that, for a time, was the biggest in the region. Early in the week, the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Mombasa dropped a bombshell: the removal of Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna.

A firebrand politician with strong oratory skills, who hails from the political cradle of Bungoma, found himself locked out of the very party he had spent years defending with a sharp tongue.

The NEC cited “indiscipline” and “violations of party protocol,” but in the eyes of the Western Kenya electorate, the optics were far more sinister. To many in the region, Sifuna’s removal felt like a targeted purge of a son of the land who refused to toe the new line that the party is evolving into, which whets the cooperation with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

The Political Parties Disputes Tribunal (PPDT) eventually intervened, temporarily reinstating Sifuna and freezing the gazettement of his ouster. The damage was, however, already done. The spectacle of Sifuna being flanked by “rebel” heavyweights, which included Siaya governor James Orengo and popular youngster MP Babu Owino of Embakasi East, has created a new power axis that resonates deeply in the Mulembe nation. “Sifuna isn’t just a party official. He is a symbol of the youthful, defiant Luhya spirit that refuses to be ‘swallowed’ by larger entities,” observes Eric Nakhurenya, a Bungoma-based lawyer and political analyst.

“By attempting to decapitate him, ODM has inadvertently turned him into a martyr. In Western, martyred leaders often become the most dangerous political asset,” Nakhurenya said.

The Sifuna saga cannot be viewed in isolation from the rising profile of Trans-Nzoia governor George Natembeya. Together, Sifuna and Natembeya represent a “Third Force” that bypasses the aging ethnic kingpins National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

Natembeya’s “Tawe” (which translates to No) movement has struck a chord with a populace weary of transactional politics.

“There is a palpable hunger for a new type of leadership, one that isn’t beholden to the whims of the Nairobi elite,” says Lillian Walubengo, a Kakamega-based political consultant.

“Sifuna and Natembeya command a massive following. If they consolidate their appeal, they won’t just tilt the region; they will redraw the map entirely.”

Their synergy is potent: Sifuna brings the urbane, legislative grit and the machinery of the Nairobi political circuit, while Natembeya offers the executive authority and grassroots “enforcer” reputation. Together, they are making it increasingly difficult for the old guard to claim they speak for the Mulembe nation.

While ODM grapples with internal strife, the “Lion Party,” Ford-Kenya, is facing a chilling reality: Its teeth may be falling out.  For years, Ford-Kenya was the undisputed soul of Bungoma politics. But the recent Chwele-Kabuchai Ward by-election has sent shockwaves through the party’s headquarters at Simba House.

In a humiliating defeat, the Ford-Kenya candidate, Vincent Maunda, was soundly beaten by an independent candidate, Eric Wekesa.  This wasn’t just a loss; it was an insurrection from within. Majimbo Kalasinga, the Kabuchai MP and a senior member of Ford-Kenya, openly defied his party leadership to lead the campaigns for the victory of an independent candidate in Ford Kenya leader Wetangiula’s ward.

Kalasinga’s rebellion is bolstered by the vocal support of Bumula MP Jack Wamboka, who has become a persistent thorn in the flesh of the party’s hierarchy. Wamboka and Kalasinga argue that the party has become a “private members’ club” that has lost touch with the struggles of the common man.

“The Chwele-Kabuchai result was a warning shot,” says political analyst Peter Simiyu. “It showed that an independent with a good message can defeat a party with a rich history. The Simba is no longer feared in its own backyard.”

Sensing the rot, Wetang’ula has launched a massive charm offensive. Assisted by the youthful and energetic Bungoma senator Wafula Wakoli, Wetang’ula has been traversing the county, holding “listening forums” to kill the flames of dissent.

Despite his optimism, the “Lion” is under siege. Senator Wakoli, though a staunch defender, has often found himself in heated exchanges with those perceived to be challengers to his political mentor, Wetang’ula. 

The tension recently boiled over during the burial of Professor Donald Siamba, where Governor Kenneth Lusaka and Senator Wakoli engaged in a public spat that laid bare the fractures within the local leadership. Adding to the instability are persistent rumours that the governor, who is Ford-Kenya’s vice chairman, is packing his bags with an eye for the ruling UDA.

The speculation intensified after President William Ruto appointed Lusaka as the coordinator of his re-election campaigns in Western Kenya. The appointment was seen as a masterstroke by Ruto but a slap in the face for Wetang’ula and Mudavadi, both of whom view themselves as the ultimate gatekeepers of the Mulembe nation’s interests.

“Lusaka is a pragmatist. He sees the resources flowing toward UDA and the stagnation within the local parties,” says lecturer and political analyst Benson Mukanda. “If he moves, he takes the county’s executive machinery with him. That would leave Ford-Kenya as a party with a general but no army,” Dr Mukanda adds.

The political vacuum in Western was further complicated by Mudavadi’s decision to disband his Amani National Congress (ANC) and merge with UDA in early 2025. While the courts recently threw a wrench in the political marriage, the damage had been done and remains.

Mulembe voters, who once looked to the ANC as a “homegrown” alternative, now feel orphaned.

“The dissolution of ANC was a strategic blunder that left the region weak,” argues Sarah Nabwile, a gender and political analyst in Vihiga.  “People feel their bargaining power was traded for a Cabinet position. Now, with the court bringing ANC back to life, the confusion is absolute. Nobody knows who owns the house anymore.”

As the leaders bicker over party symbols and court orders, the “ground” is increasingly agitated by a lack of progress on the very projects that were promised as the “fruits of the handshake” with the current administration.

The Misikhu-Naitiri-Tongaren road has become a monument of broken promises. Despite multiple “re-launches” by various high-ranking officials, the road remains a dusty (muddy during the rainy season) nightmare for farmers trying to get their produce to markets. 

Similarly, the Sikata-Bokoli-Kimilili road has stalled, leaving residents questioning the utility of having their “sons” in high offices in Nairobi.

“You cannot feed the people on party slogans when the roads are impassable,” says Nakhurenya, adding:

“The resentment over the Misikhu-Naitiri-Tongaren road is real. It is becoming a campaign issue that will swallow many incumbents in 2027. If the government doesn’t move fast, Western will become an opposition stronghold again out of pure frustration.”

The consensus among political observers is that the era of monolithic voting blocs in Western Kenya is over.

As 2026 unfolds, ushering in 2027, the political undertones in the Mulembe nation are no longer just whispers. They are a crescendo of discontent and transformation. The battle for the fragmented region’s vote will not be won through traditional endorsements or historical loyalty.

It will be a village-by-village, ward-by-ward fight between the old guard trying to maintain their grip and a new, defiant generation of leaders now revealed in embattled Sifuna and Natembeya

With the “Lion” wounded, the “Orange” fading, and the “Wheelbarrow” struggling to gain traction in the mud of stalled roads, the 2027 game in the Mulembe nation is up for the taking.