Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't: Inside Ruto's dilemma on Cabinet reshuffle

The High Court has struck another massive blow to President William Ruto by declaring his Cabinet illegal and full of rejects not fit for office.

The President finds himself in a dilemma, grappling with a constitutional deadline to reshuffle his Cabinet to adhere to the 2/3 gender rule and the political necessity to maintain the broad-based government despite the damning court order.

The court ruling on Tuesday means he now should re-appoint new faces to meet the required two-thirds gender rule threshold and also perhaps tinker with the broad based government again. But that is not a mean task, because he has to go through a tough balancing act of abiding by the legal mandate and simultaneously achieving his political interests that could ultimately hand him a second term in office or create dissent in some regions.

Pundits argue that while the court ruling gave the President 120 days to comply with the ruling, a move to reshuffle his Kitchen cabinet and replace key male allies with female appointees could disrupt regional power balances already forged through the broad-based arrangement.

It could also rattle key voting blocs such as the Coast, Mt Kenya, Western and Nyanza regions. According to the High Court ruling, President Ruto’s Cabinet as currently constituted, violates the Constitution’s two-thirds gender rule.

In a split decision delivered in consolidated petitions led by Katiba Institute, Justices Fred Ogola and Stephen Githinji criticised the reappointment of dismissed Cabinet Secretaries and inclusion of ODM politicians, while Justice Jairus Ngaah delivered a dissenting opinion.

The majority held that the current Cabinet fails to meet the constitutional gender threshold. Of its 25 members, only seven are women and 18 are men, leaving female representation at about 28 per cent, which is below the constitutionally required minimum of one-third.

The judges also ruled that the Secretary to the Cabinet cannot be counted because Article 152(1) of the Constitution defines the Cabinet as comprising only the President, Deputy President, Attorney General and Cabinet Secretaries. “The current Cabinet does not comply with the two-thirds gender principle,” the judges ruled, directing the President to comply with Article 27 of the Constitution.

The stark realisation that it will be a herculean task to comply with the ruling while stealthily navigating his fragile pacts with political allies is what has left President Ruto scratching his head. Analysts argue that given President Ruto’s current acrimonious relationship with the Mt Kenya region, and their substantive number, he is likely to target Cabinet Secretaries from the region for replacement.

Of 22 slots, CSs from the region account for seven. They include William Kabogo (ICT), Lee Kinyanjui (Trade), Mutahi Kagwe(Agriculture) and Alice Wahome (Lands and Housing), Geoffrey Ruku (Public Service), Eric Mugaa (Water and Sanitation) and Rebecca Miano (Wildlife).

But in his resolve to do so, Ruto is still presented with a headache of targeting CSs from Mt Kenya West namely Kabogo, Mutahi and Kinyanjui, when voters from the region were largely responsible for his win in the 2022 polls.

And so he risks further alienating the vote-rich bloc that has in the recent past revolted against him after his fallout with former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua. Can he bite the bullet and bank on the Mt Kenya East region votes with a hope that Deputy President Kithure Kindiki who hails from there will deliver?

Prof of History and Governance Macharia Munene now avers that for President Ruto to untangle himself from the current dilemma is no mean feat, but warns that there will be consequences no matter how he chooses to play it.

“The court decision has definitely put a lot of weight on President Ruto’s shoulders. If he decides to implement the order and reshuffle the Cabinet, then there is the lot of people like Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and her Kirinyaga Counterpart Anne Waiguru who could have reason to celebrate because they have been angling to get positions at the apex level of government,” says Munene.

“On the other hand, governments have been known to ignore court orders and I would not be surprised if President Ruto does not comply with the current one because it is not politically convenient for him and might interfere with his 2027 matrix,“ he adds.

Pundits also highlight that the President could set his sights on replacing a CS from the Western region which is increasingly being seen as receptive to the united opposition. Critics have argued that Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya could find himself in the crosshairs of President Ruto were this to play out. This, attributed to his recent remarks where he has been blowing hot and cold over his political future.

Despite being co-opted into the Ruto administration through the broad-based arrangement that brought together the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Oparanya has indicated intent to jump ship in search of the elusive luhya unity and kingpin position.

In late May, Oparanya publicly criticised internal ODM moves to discipline its Secretary General and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. He openly complained that internal party rifts were making it “impossible to support President William Ruto on the ground” because local voters demand answers about party wrangles.

“Our work to seek votes for the president is becoming very difficult. They (the electorate) are asking why did you chase away our son). In Parliament, they are now chasing away other leaders from this region yet we are almost getting to the elections. How will that help?” posed Oparanya.

Last month, Oparanya also heavily critiqued his own ministry’s funding by the National Treasury.  During a 2026/2027 budget review before the National Assembly, he lamented that severe underfunding had reduced him to a “beggar” from his Principal Secretaries just to facilitate basic official travel.

The biggest headache however is how to deal with such politicians, who also hold sway in the ODM party that is part of the broad based government. President Ruto’s point-men in Western are Speaker of National Assembly Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi the Prime Cabinet Secretary in his administration.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership, observes that the court order for a reshuffle presents a good opportunity for the President to reset the government ahead of the general elections.

“To get out of his current dilemma, he (Ruto) might be forced to forget about political alliances and regional balancing and be completely managerial by bringing onboard Cabinet Secretaries that will work for the greater good of Kenyans. If they deliver, this might change his fortunes in next year’s general election,” he states.

Adding: “His last opportunity to change how Kenyans view him was in 2024 but he completely lost. This whole thing has been unconstitutional but he now has an opportunity to correct it by bringing onboard a team that will actually deliver his 2022 campaign promises.”

Cabinet Secretaries drawn from the ODM party could also be facing the reshuffle guillotine after Tuesday’s court ruling faulted President Ruto for “unconstitutionally” appointing them.

Justice Ngaah was critical of the appointment of ODM leaders to government, arguing that bringing opposition MPs into Cabinet without a formal coalition agreement violated the Political Parties Act. The CSs are Hassan Joho (Blue Economy and mining) and who hails from the coastal region, John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum) who both hail from Nyanza region. “Opposition MPs can only be co-opted into government through the framework of Sections 10 and 11 of the Political Parties Act,” ruled Ngaah. “The only means by which a ruling party can partner with the opposition is through the framework of a coalition.”

Critics however observe that Ruto is unlikely to drop them given that he has already put in a lot of resources to court the ODM party formerly led by the late opposition leader Raila Odinga into his fold and inherit his traditional support bases such as the Nyanza and Coast regions.

“Removing them will cause a lot of friction and backlash in Nyanza and president Ruto will not want to put  himself in such awkward situations, when all he needs is to manage ODM and dictate the direction of the party takes in its strongholds,” said analyst Dickens Oduor Rachier.

The court ruling therefore presents a major headache but to have a shot at clinching a second term, they, Ruto needs to consolidate support from across the country if he is to out-do the united opposition which also now enjoys support from the populous Mt Kenya, lower Eastern and Western regions.

At the Coast, Blue Economy CS Joho has also been rallying a campaign to have himself picked as President William Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 elections, failure to which his allies have threatened to lead the formation of a regional party to “champion the region’s interests.”