Strategy that gave Ruto victory will be used against him in 2027

The ‘anti-incumbent strategy’ is a recurrent political strategy because, in most cases, those in power tend to oppress the people. In this strategy, the opponents find it easy to highlight failures, promise change, expose scandals, and address voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administrations.

That is why, from where we stand, William Ruto’s challengers will find his perceived weaknesses handy in strengthening their case against his re-election.

Nicollo Machiavelli advised Lorenzo de’ Medici in the The Prince to avoid oppressing the people because people elect new regimes in the hope of easing their burden.

Pundits agree that the Achilles heel of the Kenya Kwanza government is failure to lower the cost of living.

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That is why the 2027 presidential election will not be a walk in the park for Ruto. Any strong competitor will only require one strategy to launch stiff competition against the incumbent—the anti-Ruto strategy.

The strategy is not new. In 2022, Ruto used an anti-Uhuru strategy to win against Raila Odinga, deemed a ‘project of Uhuru Kenyatta’. The Kenya Kwanza’s plan was presented as opposed to Uhuru Kenyatta’s elitist moves.

Moreover, the dynasty versus hustlers’ narrative was another side of the same coin—it aimed to contrast Kenyatta’s family (dynasty) and Ruto, who presented himself as coming from a family of no previous political influence. Either way, the key strategy was ‘anti-Uhuru Kenyatta’.

In most cases, the ‘anti-incumbent’ politics are more powerful when current officeholders seek re-election or are keen on handing power to their desired successors. In the case where they are proposing their successors, the people are suspect of such a continuity.

The question is always, why is the incumbent interested in their successor? People see it as a way of extending an oppressive regime and attempting to deny them a desired break from the past.

It is also seen as a way of installing a government that will cover the political crimes of the outgoing regime. Either way, it is not easy to overcome the burden of incumbents in both mature and rising democracies.

From this standpoint, Ruto should re-examine his approach to governance so that if he wants to win a second term, he must change his perception of what the people want and need. He must realise that without personal development (which they build when they have money in their pockets), national development means nothing to the people.

The way things are now, it is clear that Kenyans and the Kenya Kwanza government are not reading from the same script. It is a perception that has forced the government to deploy the tyranny of power to run the country. The tyranny of power is when the elite use power and influence to trample on the rights of those at the bottom and suppress dissenters.

The feeling on the ground is that starting with the 'UhuRuto' government’s second term, the presidency visibly started suppressing dissenters. We are seeing the same trend in the current government’s first term.

In the last few months, insiders and outsiders in government alike have raised concerns regarding the disappearance of Kenyans deemed critical to the government. It is a baggage that Ruto will have to carry in 2027 when he seeks re-election.  

Unless the President changes his stance on some issues affecting ordinary citizens, the central ideology in 2027 will be “remove Ruto”, and it could succeed.

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication