How Faki failed AfCFTA and why Raila must make it work

In his inaugural address, US President Donald Trump was categorical about his path to economic recovery and growth. He asserted that what was necessary for Americans was practical policies that overemphasized building their domestic economy, and only when time was right would he spare no efforts in restoring world trade.

Trump’s economic policies, as well as trade approaches of Western countries, have made it abundantly clear that Africa must prioritise intra-African trade to achieve economic self-reliance.

The recent 90-day freeze on US aid exposed the high-level dependency that African states have on the US, particularly in vital economic areas that could be grown internally with the right leadership.

For decades, African countries have been receiving US foreign aid, primarily directed toward health, economic development, democracy and governance, peace and security, and education. But the aid freeze by the US government and potential end of trade deals underscores the urgent need for Africa to strengthen its economic independence through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

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Regrettably, the current leadership of the AUC, led by Moussa Faki Mahamat, failed to promote intra-African trade by ensuring the AfCFTA works. For AfCFTA to delivers on its promise, AUC leadership must be strong enough to call for political goodwill. This is why a seasoned leader who understands the continent, like Raila Odinga, pivots well on such a heavy assignment.

Raila’s vision plan must call for a robust conversation on common markets for the various regional economic blocs in Africa. He must move towards AfCFTA workability.

First, intra-African trade has seen some progress, with a notable 7.2 per cent increase in 2023. However, it remains relatively low compared to trade within other continents.

A significant trade imbalance exists between Africa and the West, as well as China, with Africa exporting mostly raw materials while importing high-value finished goods. This unfavourable trade pattern continues to undermine Africa’s economic autonomy and industrial growth.

AfCFTA holds immense promise in re-energizing intra-African trade by reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers and a practical way to ensure its success is by fostering harmonisation across customs unions within Africa’s Regional Economic Communities (RECs). This would facilitate the seamless movement of goods, services, and persons across Africa, thus enhancing market integration.

Beyond trade, AfCFTA must also prioritise movement of labour and portability of social protection benefits. Trade unions must be considered to play a central role in these discussions to ensure fair labour standards and worker protections.

The next AUC Chair must empower the African Union Economic, Social, and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC), which, much like Kenya’s National Economic and Social Council (NESC), was intended to drive policy coherence but has been weakened over time. Strengthening ECOSOCC would enable better social dialogue between trade unions, employer organisations, and governments, fostering a more inclusive and productive economic framework.

Further, the ECOSOCC, with the support of the next AUC chair, must ensure trade unions and employer organisations champion regional productivity centres to enhance workforce skills and economic output.

Second, assuming the Trump administration were to make true the threat of winding up the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has facilitated duty-free access for African exports to the US, African countries benefiting from it will not only suffer an economic crisis but also a political crisis considering the high unemployment that will follow.

The next AUC chair must confront rising crime rates, insurgencies, and political instability, mostly fueled by economic hardships.

As the voting gets underway today, we pray that the roads may rise to meet Raila Amolo Odinga. And that the road not taken, will make all the difference, for him.