Who gains from Raila-Ruto deal? Experts differ on value of pact

How will the much-anticipated political deal between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga impact the political fortunes of the latter, a veteran politician who has dictated the country’s political psyche for three decades?

In the run-up to the 2022 presidential elections, constitutional law scholar Yash Pal Ghai penned an article titled Uhuru-Raila deal a product of fantasy? A similar question is now being posed regarding the emerging bromance between President William Ruto and Raila ahead of the 2027 polls.

In his argument, Ghai questioned the blind support that Uhuru and Raila allies quickly offered the duo even before being informed about the deal and how it could have benefited the people of Kenya.

Yesterday, an Azimio One Kenya Alliance MP from the western region, who did not want to be named, also posed the same question, asking if there is any difference between the Raila–Uhuru handshake in 2018 and the one that appears to have been covertly agreed upon now.

“There was absolutely no reason why Raila chose to work with Uhuru Kenyatta, because he could have even performed better without him and there is also zero reasons why he is going to work with the current leadership unless it is for other purposes other than his political future,” said the MP.

He argued that Raila will find it hard to be believed if he continues engaging in what now appear to be political conspiracies after every election. He thinks Raila can perform better by sticking to the ideals of the ODM party.

It is argued that by working with the government, the ODM leader will find it extremely hard to dissociate himself from the kidnappings, killings, and corruption allegations that are weighing heavily on the shoulders of the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Raila will need to present a well-thought-out and convincing decision when he addresses the country next week.

In the Uhuru-Raila deal, Prof Ghai presented two realistic scenarios that should have informed the decision. First, in his negotiations, Raila should have ensured that fundamental changes in Kenya were not threatened.

“Raila has long claimed his loyalty is to the Constitution. But unlike Uhuru, he has not yet had the opportunity to prove his loyalty. His immediate advisers are undoubtedly people of great talent and integrity—but will they continue to exercise their influence and shift national policies towards the NASA direction?” he posed.

It is also difficult to understand how the opposition leader will influence change in the current political order given the extreme positions held by hawkish UDA politicians and advisers surrounding President Ruto.

Political analyst Martin Andati thinks Raila will use his old tactic of getting some commitments from the government by appearing to criticise those in power and demanding quick fixes, such as an end to abductions and better delivery of health services and education.

“They have already agreed on how parliamentary leadership committee seats will be distributed. Crucial committees like Budget and Appropriations, Health, Finance and Planning, among others, will be allocated to Raila’s ODM side,” says Andati.

The opposition leader is said to be brainstorming how he will strike a balance that will be acceptable to both his new friends in UDA and a restless group in ODM, including senior party leaders.

The Luo Council of Elders and some politicians, like Suna East MP Junet Mohammed and Homa Bay’s Peter Kaluma, are already supporting the deal between ODM and UDA.

“When Raila addresses the country next week, you will hear him talking about some irreducible minimums ODM expects from the Kenya Kwanza administration in the provision of good governance and reforms—but that is what we have heard before,” says Andati.

The elephant in the room is: Apart from the positions ODM will get in the deal to be signed, what other trade-offs is Raila being given so that he can be fully integrated into the new setup?

Andati thinks he will either ask for the position of Prime Minister, which can only be created through a constitutional amendment, or go for Vice President. It has also been rumoured that ODM is demanding the National Assembly Speaker position, currently held by Moses Wetang’ula.

Creating a Prime Minister position, however, will be a tall order because it requires a referendum. Neither the president nor the former prime minister will risk calling for a referendum due to growing hostility against the government.

It is also difficult to see how President Ruto can remove Wetang’ula when he is busy cobbling together a coalition that should include the majority of voters in the Speaker’s western region stronghold.

Currently, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi holds two offices, including the foreign affairs portfolio. Talk has it that he could be asked to relinquish the former for Raila, but the ODM leader is reportedly not keen on the cloutless office.

Political analysts, however, fear the deal is going to be all about Raila’s personal interests and President William Ruto’s re-election in 2027, which ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna thinks will be a tall order even with the support of his party boss.

Ghai argues strongly that such memorandums between leaders should be grounded in social justice, democracy, care for the poor, turning slums into places of safety, creating an environment where the police are the friends and protectors of the people, promoting good education, and providing quality medical services.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University does not see the political value Raila will gain from the deal, as he will be deemed to have abandoned what he championed for when he opposed Ruto in 2022.

“He should emulate President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia, who lost elections many times but remained steadfast to his political ideals without shifting support to those in power until he realised his dreams,” says Naituli.

The ODM party faces a tough test in the coming weeks, as whatever decision Raila takes will have a bearing on its future. But the party leader cannot afford to disappoint President Ruto after all the sacrifices he has made to bring him into the broad-based government.

He must also be cognisant of internal tensions brewing in the party because of his decisions, as exemplified by the ongoing exchanges between his diehards and progressive voices in ODM.

“There are issues that the likes of Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, James Orengo, Sifuna, Richard Onyonka, Simba Arati, and most MPs from the western region are raising, which he can only ignore at the detriment of the party,” says Andati.

It was also curious that the entire ODM leadership from Kakamega, led by CS Wycliffe Oparanya, was conspicuously absent at the 20th-anniversary celebrations in Busia.

Sifuna maintains that the party is focused on ascending to power in 2027 and should not entertain the idea of supporting another candidate.

A significant number of MPs in the party also appear to be very uncomfortable with the current working arrangements between Raila and Ruto, with some absconding a meeting between their colleagues and President Ruto at State House.

Recently appointed Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi has also voiced his opposition to the party joining UDA and supporting President Ruto in 2027, saying they will have their own candidate.

Most of those opposing the idea appear to be ODM MPs from outside the Luo Nyanza region, likely because it is politically suicidal to oppose Baba, as Raila is called, in his main stronghold.

As expected, President Ruto and Raila will intensify their calls for national cohesion and inclusivity, using it as the reason why the deal must work—because, according to them, the opposition, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, is spreading seeds of discord.

Gachagua has become a thorn in the government’s side and is currently making serious political gains, particularly in the Mt Kenya region, where his messaging appears to be resonating with the people and their leaders.

Together with Kalonzo, Gachagua has urged Raila to abandon Ruto and join them in the fight to remove the president from power in 2027.

The impending removal of parliamentary committee leaders from the Mt Kenya region will increase political temperatures, making it more difficult for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to stamp his weak foothold in Mt Kenya.

Over the last four months, President Ruto has significantly reduced his visits to the mountain region, likely recognising that it is a voting constituency that has largely abandoned him—making Raila’s deal more crucial.

That explains the intensive campaign-cum-development tours he has embarked on in Nyanza, Western, North Eastern, and the Coast, often accompanied by Raila or his stalwarts.