Office bearers must rise up and arrest political violence

Recently, there has been an increase in violence in social and political gatherings. Last week, a tear gas canister was discharged at an event in Murang’a hosted by Kameme FM’s Muthoni wa Kirumba.

From information shared on social media, it appears the attack was orchestrated by police officers.

In Bungoma, a rally organised by Trans Nzoia Governor Natembeya was attacked by unidentified people firing guns, injuring several attendants. Again, images show damage to the vehicles of VIPs.

The cases above are merely an addition to a series of violent attacks targeting opposition leaders and those seen to support them. According to ACLED, an independent monitor of conflict around the world, there have been 1,297 incidences of political violence in Kenya over the last 12 months.

These events have resulted in 824 fatalities. That is 72 per cent of the 1,133 estimated to have been killed during the 2007-8 post-election violence. A worrying scale of political violence.

More worrying is the indication that much of this violence is perpetrated by police or by armed groups backed by the current regime, meaning the police merely look away.

We saw the gangs allowed to operate with impunity during the Gen Z uprising of 2023. No matter how the National Police Service (NPS) denies any role in the violence, it is difficult to believe them when the signs point to their involvement or acquiescence.

A tear gas canister is not something a random person can pick from a shop down the street. With respect to guns, the police often argue that there are many private licensed gun owners and many illegally held guns.

While this may be true, the licensing is done by the government and the role of addressing illegal gun ownership is theirs too.

Additionally, we do not see any investigations into cases of blatant abuse of power by state officers or even criminal activities that result in loss of life and damage of property.

This is a troubling development, especially towards the 2027 general election. For any keen observer, there is reason for us to be worried about violence during the elections. History shows that elections in which an incumbent President is seeking re-election tend to be the most violent.

The experiences of 1992, 1997, 2007 and 2017 are clear to many and hence need not be repeated here.

Exploring the reasons for this, we see that incumbent Presidents and their regimes — especially when significantly threatened with the prospect of electoral loss — resort to using the state security apparatus to intimidate their opponents.

The brutality we have seen in opposition meetings for instance over the years has been intense, resulting in numerous fatalities with thousands sustaining life altering injuries.

We have also seen violence aimed at altering the political geography of certain regions, kicking certain groups out to ensure they do not vote and there obtain electoral advantages. Of course, when the national players behave with impunity, politicians feel that they can act in similar ways with the effect of intensifying the violence.

From what we are seeing from the response of the state security apparatus to any perceived threat to the regime since the Gen Z uprising of 2023, we need to be very concerned about 2027.

The NPS really must wake up and smell the coffee. Half-hearted statements issued after glaring exposures of failure will not do.

The leadership of the NPS needs to be reminded that the loss of legitimacy of the police played a disproportionate role in the crisis that the country faced in 2007-8.  They have to work as service that safeguards the rights of all Kenyans and act in impartial ways to execute their constitutional mandate.

We also should not be waiting until it is too late to start putting measures in place to safeguard peace as the political temperatures rise. Research on political violence shows that small violent events should serve as a strong warning signal for potential blow ups in the future.

The violence in Kasipul by-election, which saw three lives lost, should not be taken lightly. The response of IEBC, fining the two candidates equally, does little to address the underlying issues.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has not risen to the occasion, yet intervening in cases like this is the primary mandate. Their perceived partisanship does not help matters either.

The lackluster manner in which these issues are being handled, are big warning signs that we may not have the appropriate apparatus in place to handle any fallouts around the 2027 elections.

The IEBC needs to start serious engagement with key stakeholders and put plans to secure the election.

Before, during and after the election, our priority must be a safe and peaceful country. The constitutional duty bearers like IEBC, NCIC and NPS have a crucial role to deliver this. Kenyans are watching.