Why Ol Kalou is Methu's Napoleon moment

After weeks of tense campaigning, the Ol Kalou mini-poll is done and dusted unless someone challenges the outcome in court. For now, the country can breathe.

While the UDA leadership readily conceded defeat, DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua has declared that Thursday was a ‘tipping point’ for the country. The soap opera is unraveling. Perhaps had Raila Odinga been alive today, he would be blamed for the ugly scenes in Ol Kalou on Thursday. But, borrowing from the enigma’s favourite Harry Belafonte’s Jamaica Farewell, Jakom ‘won’t be back for many a day.’ 

According to the electoral agency, Mr Sammy Kamau of DCP garnered 35,440 votes to trounce UDA’s Samuel Muchina, who got a paltry 5,450 votes. Basking in glory, Mr Gachagua’s brigade is high up, predicting huge prospects against President William Ruto. Time will be the judge.

But on a sober note, life has a way of humbling those who celebrate too soon. Meanwhile, a day in politics can be eternity. If I were advising Mr Gachagua, my message would be ‘tuliza boli’ for now. It’s too early to enter the comfort zone.

Napoleon Bonaparte, the French military commander who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and crowned himself Emperor in 1804, was a shrewd military strategist. His victory at the Battle of Austerlitz in 1805 cemented his reputation as an unrivalled leader.

Unfortunately, his success bred overconfidence. Napoleon underestimated the realities of guerrilla warfare and overextended himself during the Russia invasion of 1812. Shortly afterwards, he suffered a defeat at Waterloo. Momentary triumph clouded his judgment and strategy.

I dare say that the former Deputy President would do well to remember that our politics is rarely static. But perhaps the man who most needs that reminder is DCP Secretary General John Methu, the Nyandarua Senator. He strikes me as a man carried away by shallow showbiz.  

The SG doesn’t need to define himself through bitterness towards President Ruto or UDA. His task is simpler. He should be convincing us that DCP offers a better vision for the country. Mocking leaders does little to inspire the nation’s confidence.

I have argued before that bitterness is like drinking poison and expecting someone else to die. By the way, this isn’t about Mr Methu’s trademark rough hair, youthful exuberance or mien. It’s about the need to project the temperament expected of the secretary-general of a party seeking power.

Mr Methu is free to criticise Kenya Kwanza. That’s the essence of opposition politics. But he should remember that Mt Kenya votes alone can’t produce a president. If he reduces DCP to a Kikuyu thing, he will isolate his party and region from the national arithmetic for good.

There’s another reality DCP can’t ignore. Many voters in Mt Kenya are uncertain about who carries the region’s political mantle. Is it Mr Gachagua or former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Like it or not, Mr Kenyatta remains the most influential figure in the mountain.

As long as Jomo’s son keeps ‘Wamunyoro’ at arm’s length, DCP’s path to becoming a national force becomes more slippery. Behind the scenes, Mr Methu should be exploring ways of building common ground between DCP and Jubilee Party rather than assuming that political loyalties will naturally converge. He won’t believe what will happen.

As matters stand now, 2027 presents a challenge for Mt Kenya because the region won’t field a presidential candidate. We must admit that the political landscape has drastically changed in the absence of Mr Odinga. The mountain could languish in political winter for a century.

If I had only one word for Senator Methu after the Ol Kalou verdict, it would be ‘caution’ going forward. Victory should be taken in humility. There’s no gain in being abrasive and condescending. Like Napoleon after Austerlitz, he will learn the hard way.

One more thing. Mr Methu should recall what befell Mr Cleophas Malala during his tenure as UDA Secretary-General, as well as Mr Ababu Namwamba and Mr Margerer Lagat in ODM. Political fortunes can change with remarkable speed.

-The writer is a communications practitioner.