Why elephant numbers are rising while buffaloes decline

The number of elephants and rhinos in the country are on the rise according to the just released National Wildlife Census 2025 technical report.

However, the population of buffaloes, giraffes, zebras and antelopes (ungulates), carnivores, birds and marine fauna continue to decline sharply with some facing extinction.

According to the census that was conducted between June 2024 and August 2025 Aquatic ecosystems show worrying trends where wetland bird populations have fallen by 8–97 percent in key habitats.

In Lake Elementaita which is located near Gilgil town, bird numbers dropped by up to 97 percent between 2023 and 2025 with marine ecosystems being a cornerstone of Kenya’s Blue economy.

The report that was spearheaded by Wildlife Research and Training Institute (WRTI), KWS and other State agencies covered major terrestrial ecosystems including Tsavo, Laikipia–Samburu, Maasai Mara, Athi–Kaputiei and Amboseli–Magadi

As per the recently released report, the number of elephants shot up from 36,280 to 42,072 (four percent) between 2021 and 2025 while that of Rhino rose from 1812 to 2102.

“Key findings show that elephant and rhino populations have recovered due to intensive protection while other species including ungulates, carnivores, birds and marine fauna continue to decline sharply,” reads the report in part.

The number of lions has not changed and remains at 2512 with Mara Ecosystem hosting the largest numbers while the number of cheetahs has reduced from 1160 to 605 with decline attributed to human impacts.

The census further noted that numbers of giraffes increased from 35,355 to 43,002 while the number of the endangered mountain Bongo also shot up from 150 to 179 in the same period.

There was, however, a sharp drop in the number of rangeland buffaloes whose numbers dropped from 41,659 to 27389 while that of Grevy's zebras stood at 2465 against 2649 four years ago.

“Populations of many species, even within protected areas, are nearing extinction, while livestock numbers continue to rise, competing directly with wildlife for space and resources,” reads the report.

The report further notes that the Blue Economy continues to face pressure from habitat degradation and unsustainable exploitation.

“Kenya’s biodiversity faces increasing threats from land degradation, habitat fragmentation, poaching, invasive species, pollution and the impacts of climate change,”

To address the challenges, experts are calling for enactment of wildlife ecosystem plans into county spatial plans and physical plans.

The researchers want the Ministry to fast track and implement the presidential directive on recognizing wildlife conservation as a land use.

“There is a need to provide resources to secure identified priority wildlife corridors, fast track completion of the presidential directive on The Athi-Kapiti ecosystem migratory corridor,” says the report.

The report further calls for a directive to plough back to Wildlife Conservation, at least 10 percent of wildlife related tourism revenues obtained from Tourism Fund.

This will work as reinvestment to boost and expand Tourism to fund operationalisation of dormant National Parks and Reserves.

“The National Wildlife Census to be conducted after every three years in line with wildlife ecological cycles with a budgetary allocation by the National Treasury,”

The report calls for establishment of a national repository for wildlife genetic resources for Kenya to catalyze research and development to enhance wildlife research.

Currently, the country’s wildlife genetic resources are held by institutions outside Kenya where they are accessed and utilized with no benefits to the country.

According to WRTI Director Dr Patrick Omondi, livestock populations, coupled with poor husbandry practices, have increased in rangeland ecosystems that also serve as critical wildlife habitats, further straining biodiversity.

Compounding this, reduced rainfall and recurring droughts linked to global climate change have negatively affected wildlife populations across most ecosystems.

“Since the last National Wildlife Census in 2021, Kenya has experienced both droughts and floods, impacting wildlife and livestock species alike,” he says.

Omondi notes that as land cover and land use continue to change, migratory wildlife species are losing dispersal areas and migratory routes, leading to disrupted connectivity between key landscapes.

“Past monitoring has documented extensive cross-landscape movements between ecosystems such as Amboseli–Tsavo, Meru–Laikipia, and Laikipia–Marsabit,” adds Omondi.  

KWS Director-General Professor Erutus Kanga says that the census shows encouraging signs of recovery and resilience.

According to him, elephant populations have stabilized or increased in key ecosystems such as Tsavo, Amboseli, and Laikipia–Samburu, reflecting effective anti- poaching and security collaborations.

“Rhino numbers continue to recover steadily through protection, translocation and breeding programmes,”

“Gains have also been recorded for the hirola, Grevy’s zebra and mountain bongo which are among the world’s rarest mammals while in the coastal and marine ecosystems, increased sightings of dolphins, sea turtles and coral regeneration signal improving ocean health,” he says.

On her part, the PS for Tourism and Wildlife Silvia Museiya notes that changing land-use patterns, tenure systems and population pressures are straining our natural resources.

She says that the challenges have been compounded by global climate change which has led to erratic weather, prolonged droughts and growing ecosystem stress.

Museiya adds that the data and insights will inform government policy, community management, investment opportunities and conservation partnerships.

“This will guide targeted interventions, habitat restoration and expansion of wildlife ranges while enhancing collective capacity to achieve sustainable development and ensuring wildlife and people coexist harmoniously,” she says.